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Thursday February 16, 2006 - 12:49:32 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 16-Feb-2006....1239 GMT

Euro @ 1.1866/9....TP on Short
--------------------------------------------
R: 1.1887-99 / 1.1924 / 1.1955
S: 1.1849 / 1.1825 / 1.1793
Euro has tested Support at 1.1850 today and will try to break it while it remains below 1.1925. A successful break can trigger a lot of Stop Losses. BUT, in case the Euro closes above 1.1925 tonight, we could see a rally towards 1.1975 tomorrow.

Exit Trade:
TP at current level on EUR 20K Short entered at 1.1938


$-Yen @ 117.92/6....Potentially bullish
---------------------------------------
R: 118.13-29 / 118.64-75
S: 117.80-67 / 117.48 / 117.31
We wanted to buy on a dip during the day, but there has been none. Instead, the market has moved up since the morning and is looking potentially bullish. A rise past the immediately important Resistance at 118.13-29 could yield a further upmove towards the very strong and crucial Resistance at 118.60. Important Support now is 117.80-67.

Trade:
Buy $25K at current level, SL 117.60, TP 118.50


Euro-Yen @ 139.94/99....Ranged, Sell rally
-----------------------------------------------
R: 140.23-40 / 140.80
S: 139.60-50 / 139.00
The Euro-Yen has done little during the day so far, staying within the expected range of 139.50 and 140.40. It now has to move outside the range to show a directional move. On the downside, the Supports come in at 139.60-50 and then at 139.00. On the upside, the Resistance is seen at 140.23-40, which is also the upper end of the said range. Above this the Resistance comes in at 140.80-141.06. The Cross could remain within the range of 139.50-140.40 with a bearish bias. We would like to sell a rally

Order:
Sell Euro 20K at 140.20, SL 140.43, TP 139.73


$-Swiss @ 1.3132/37.....Holding Long
------------------------------------
R: 1.3160 / 1.3202
S: 1.3102-3086 / 1.3046-25 / 1.3003
The $-Swiss showed nice bullish consolidation and it now seems to have broken above the important trendline which is present on the daily charts (joining the high of 1.3287 on 17-Nov 05 and the high of 1.3203 on 30-Dec 05). On the upside, there is a weak Resistance at 1.3160. Once this is broken, there could be a sharp upmove, initially towards 1.3202, which is the statistically projected Max High for the day and then towards 1.3300 in a few days. On the downside strong Supports come in at 1.3102-3086 and then at 1.3046-25. We don’t expect these to be tested. The intraday bias is bullish. Our buy order has been executed.

Holding:
$25K at 1.3135, SL 1.3090 (up from 1.3070), TP 1.3270


Cable @ 1.7344/9....Buying some
-------------------------------
R: 1.7400-16 / 1.7457
S: 1.7306 / 1.7280
The Cable fell to as much as 1.7306 today but has bounced back. The 1.7306-7280 region is a strong Support now and while it holds, there are chances of a rally towards 1.7450 by Friday. Even 1.7500 cannot be ruled out.

Trade:
Buy GBP 15K at current level, SL 1.7269, TP 1.7440




Aussie @ 0.7374/9....Ranged with a bearish bias
-----------------------------------------------
R: 0.7401-0.7411 / 0.7434-45
S: 0.7356 / 0.7334
The Aussie has been consolidating between 0.7355-7451 since 07-Feb. It is probably a pause before a further fall towards 0.7250 in the weeks ahead. For today, from the current level, there are equal chances of a rally into the 0.7410-25 region or a fall into the 0.7370-60 region. We would like to sell a rally.

Order:
Sell AUD 30K at 0.7419, SL 0.7450, TP 0.7360




Happy Trading!

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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