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Friday February 17, 2006 - 11:42:25 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• Outside chance of some end of week squaring in EUR-USD today, but overall risk remains to the
downside.
• PPI and Michigan sentiment will also be important.
• USD-JPY breaks through 118.25-30.
• NZD break through key levels leaves downside risk.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD remains close to the levels seen through most of yesterday’s session, although it did have a brief attempt higher in early Asia. This was probably related to the fall in USD-JPY ahead of the GDP report (see below) but may also reflect some squaring of shorts ahead of the weekend given the lack of sustainable downside progress on EUR-USD yesterday. There is an outside chance of a minor end-of-week recovery today, especially although we still see the overall risk to be clearly on the downside. Furthermore, any intra-day recovery may also depend upon today’s US data. Downside risk remains in place while it stays below 1.1960.

USD-JPY weakened before and immediately after last night’s stronger than expected GDP number, but it quickly rallied back up towards the key short-term resistance at 118.25-30 and went on to break this area in Europe. This shifts the short-term risk back to the topside, but it may be difficult to get through 119.50- 120.00 given the latest uncertainty about the outlook for BoJ rates. Koizumi was quoted this morning as saying that deflation was still a problem in Japan, but USD-JPY made its move a good hour before these comments hit the wires. Still, they demonstrate the difficulties the BoJ will face in forcing through any aggressive policy changes.

The main currency worth watching today is the NZD Yesterday’s weak PMI data added to fears about a turn in the NZ economic cycle, causing the NZD to break below key support at 0.6680-0.6700. There is now downside risk to 0.6410 and 0.6240 over the coming week or so, but some move in this direction will be needed today or Monday, otherwise the market may sense a lack of appetite for such a development.

Day Ahead
US – PPI and Michigan sentiment feature today. While the FOMC remains mindful of the inflation pressures that could emerge from the US economy operating at a very high level of resource utilisation, they will have drawn some comfort from the easing in the core PPI y/y rate in Q4 (see chart). It is important that this is sustained, otherwise it would be an additional argument in favour of them moving the funds rate into genuine tightening territory. The University of Michigan measure of national consumer sentiment was higher in Dec and Jan, reversing the weakness seen during the hurricane/fuel price strength period of September/October.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

US PPI (Jan) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
US PPI core (Jan) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
CA Wholesale sales (Dec) m/m 08.30 +0.5%
US Michigan sentiment (Feb, prel) 09.45 91.0

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP GDP (Q4, prel) q/q +1.4% +1.2%
JP GDP deflator (Q4) y/y -1.6% -1.5%
FR Non-farm payrolls (Q4) q/q +0.1% 0.1%
EU Ind prod (Dec) m/m +0.1% 0.0%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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