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Monday July 5, 2004 - 13:19:25 GMT
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Daily Forex Commentary by Global Forex Trading

(source: http://www.gftforex.com/resources/daily.asp?date=722004)

The dollar consolidated in tight ranges versus the European currencies and fell against the yen on Thursday as the market was focused more on digesting the Fed rate hike and on the upcoming long US weekend. The economic indicators failed to impress, as they only reinforced the status quo. All eyes are now on the release of the US unemployment report during the short session on Friday.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar traded nervously back and forth around the 200-day moving average at around 1.2140 on Thursday, as the market shows little appetite for additional volatility right now.

Below 1.2140, the euro/dollar has support at 1.2100. A break below 1.2038 would then target 1.2000, but this level should not be seen.

If it managed to recover above 1.2208, the pair should then challenge the pivotal 1.2229 level. A further break higher would target once again the 1.2260 area.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Once the effect of the strong Tankan report dissipated, dollar/yen resumed its yo-yo behavior and recovered in early Friday trading.

Any further strength would target the pivotal resistance at 109.15, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. Distant resistance comes at 110.23.

Initial support comes at 108.20. Key support remains from the 107.95 50-point pivot, which targets 108.45 and 107.45. Below 107.45, dollar/yen has support at 107.25 and then at 107.00.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar reversed early losses on Thursday but failed once again to close above the 100-day moving average at around 1.8190. Only a close higher would sanction further gains.

If successful, the pair would challenge 1.8257 and a break above this level signals a rally to the 1.8295. There is a pivotal high at 1.8337.

Below the 1.8117 Fibonacci retracement level, the pair has initial support at 1.8050 and a break lower would signal a decline to 1.7956. Further support remains at 1.7865 from a Fibonacci retracement level.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly higher

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc reversed small early gains and sank below the support from its 20-day moving average at around 1.2505.

A break above this average signals a move to 1.2565. A rally to 1.2674 is unlikely. Distant resistance remains at 1.2774 from a Fibonacci retracement level.

Dollar/Swiss franc has support at 1.2470 and a break lower would target first 1.2440 and then 1.2384. If this level gives way as well, then look for a test the support at 1.2320.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


 

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