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Monday February 20, 2006 - 13:07:03 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 20-Feb-2006....1201 GMT

Euro @ 1.1934/7....Buy Low/ Sell High
R: 1.1981 / 1.2017 / 1.2033-41
S: 1.1923-21 / 1.1907-02
1.1980 is the 50% retracement of the rise from 1.1638 (Nov-05) to 1.2321 (Jan-06). The Euro is trading just below this, almost slambang in the middle of the 1.1638-2321 region. The "indecisive region" bounded by the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements is 1.2060-1899. While the market remains in this range, views and sentiment will keep changing with every up and down - becoming bullish near the top of the range and bearish near the bottom of the range. We suggest a "Buy Low/ Sell High" strategy.

We went Short at 1.1900 on Friday but have been stopped out at 1.1943 in Tokyo trading today.

Sell EUR 20K at 1.2030, SL 1.2083, TP 1.1980
Buy EUR 20K at 1.1910, SL 1.1860, TP 1.1980

$-Yen @ 118.17/21.....Stay out
R: 118.40 / 118.74
S: 118.00-117.93 / 117.53 / 117.32
The market has gone nowhere since the morning. In case the immediate Support at 118.00-117.93 breaks, a fall towards 117.53 might be seen. We remove the Order to buy at 118.00. While the market trades above 118.00, on the other hand, a rise towards 118.55 might be possible. The chances of the upside and downsdide seem equal and it might be better to stay out of the market.

Euro-Yen @ 141.04/9....Outlook unclear
R: 141.23 / 141.54 / 142.13
S: 140.84 / 140.57-54 / 140.42-30
The big Resistance at 141.54 (mentioned in the morning) has held and caused the Cross to fall. This fall can continue a little longer, possibly taking the market down towards its Support at 140.84 or 140.57-54. Now, the initial Resistance comes in at 141.23. If that is crossed there could be a rally towards the Critical Resistance at 141.54. Incase there is a move above this Resistance it will reinforce the bullishness in a big way. The outlook is unclear and we have no trades.

$-Swiss @ 1.3078/83...Staying out
R: 1.3091-3108 / 1.3137 / 1.3166
S: 1.3069 / 1.3027-18 / 1.3011-04
There has been little change in the $-Swiss today far and it has remained lackluster
within a range of 1.3060 and 1.3118. Since, there has been a break of an important trendline (4-Hourly, joining the low of 1.2574 on 25-Jan 06 and the low of 1.2924 on 10-Feb 06), the pressure is on the downside. On the upside the Resistances come in at 1.3090-3108 and then at the 200 Week MA, which comes in at 1.3137. On the downside important Supports come in at 1.3069 and then at 1.3027-18. Intraday, it is expected to stay in a range with a bearish bias. We may have to sell in case of a Close below 1.3027-18.

Cable @ 1.7430/35....Caught in contracting range
R: 1.7441 / 1.7464 / 1.7487
S: 1.7395 / 1.7345 / 1.7306
Caught in a narrowing range between 1.7487 and 1.7355.
We went Long at 1.7457 but there was no follow-through buying and we were stopped out at 1.7435. The market is looking very Iffy and undecided. There's no point losing any more money, so we stay out.

Aussie @ 0.7404/11...Ranged between 0.7350/ 0.7450
R: 0.7416-28 / 0.7438-46 / 0.7452-63
S: 0.7397-89 / 0.7359
There has been little change in the Aussie so far. It is ranged with 0.7350 and 0.7450 for the last few days and is currently not showing any signs of coming out of that range. Currently on the downside the Supports come in at 0.7397-89 and then at 0.7359. On the upside the initial Resistance comes in at 0.7416-28 and then the important one at 0.7438-46. The intraday bias is currently neutral. Since, it is ranged we would not like to trade it currently.

Happy Trading!


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