User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday February 20, 2006 - 13:50:56 GMT
GCI Financial - www.gcitrading.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (20 February 2006)



The euro was little-changed vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.1975 level and was supported around the $1.1920 level. Technically, the pair stopped just short of testing the 50% retracement of the move from $1.1640 to $1.2325. The common currency registered a strong comeback on Friday after a weaker-than-expected mid-February University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was released in the U.S. Some traders began to pare back their expectations regarding future U.S. interest rate hikes following Friday’s sentiment data even though it capped off a relatively strong week for U.S. economic data and semi-hawkish testimony from new Fed Chairman Bernanke. Most traders continue to believe the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates on 28 March and some continue to believe another +25bps tightening is in the card for the 10 May FOMC meeting. This week’s consumer price inflation data scheduled for release on Wednesday will be a primary focus as traders wait to see if growing producer price inflation is filtering through to the retail and consumer level. A week CPI print would likely be dollar-negative as traders would be forced to reduce their expectations concerning additional Fed tightening. Friday’s durable goods orders data in the U.S. are another key focus for traders this week as many economists are actually forecasting a decline. In eurozone news, European Central Bank President Trichet testifies later today and his remarks will be closely scrutinized for any clues about the ECB’s likely path of monetary policy. Many traders believe the ECB will raise rates as early as next month given stubbornly highly inflation in the eurozone and the recent spike in energy prices. Data released in the eurozone today saw German December retail sales off 0.8% m/m and off 0.9% y/y/. Also, German January producer price inflation was up 1.2% m/m and 5.6% y/y, the strongest annualized rate since July 1982. Ex-energy, annualized PPI was up 1.2%. Germany’s Bundesbank released its February monthly bulletin today and predicted Germany will likely experience “a continuation of the economic upward trend.” Bundesbank also indicated a reduction in Germany’s budget deficit to 3% of GDP is “within reach.” Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.2000/ 1.2060 levels.


¥/ CNY

The yen lost marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥118.35 level and was supported around the ¥117.90 level. Today’s range was relatively narrow overnight given a lack of major news out of Japan and was expected to remain thin through North American dealing on account of a market holiday in the U.S. The pair was little-changed week-on-week last week and remained supported above technical support seen around the ¥116.55 level, the 38.2% retracement of the move from ¥108.75 to ¥121.40. Data released in Japan overnight saw January convenience store sales decline 3.2% y/y. The yen had its chances to advance last week after the release of relatively strong gross domestic product data but was reined in by a worse-than-expected GDP deflator that evidenced continuing deflation in Japan. This week’s primary focus will be Thursday’s data including December trade and the January corporate services price index. The age-old question on traders’ minds is when Bank of Japan will officially begin to unwind its long-standing quantitative easing policy. Last week’s GDP deflator number has many traders believing a shift in policy will not happen before the Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting on 28 April. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.75% to close at ¥15,437.93. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥117.40/ ¥116.45 levels. The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥141.50 level and was supported around the ¥140.95 level. Technicians are interested to see how the cross trades around the ¥141.10 level this week, representing the 61.8% retracement of the move from ¥143.60 to ¥137.10. The British pound and Swiss franc rallied vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested offers around the ¥206.30 and ¥90.45 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 8.0477 in over-the-counter trading, down from CNY 8.0488, and at CNY 8.0475 in exchange-traded activity. Data released in China today saw actual foreign direct investment up 10.99% y/y at US$ 4.55 billion in January. The China Academy of Science, a think-tank, predicted China’s CPI will be about 1.97% in 2006.



The British pound gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.7460 level and was supported around the $1.7405 level. Sterling orbited around the $1.7435 level, technically representing the 61.8% retracement of the move from $1.7130 to $1.7935. Data released in the U.K. today saw property website Rightmove report that February home asking prices are up 2.7% m/m, the fastest rate since April 2004. Similarly, CML reported gross mortgage lending in January was at £23 billion, off from December’s £26.9 billion pace but considerably stronger than the £17.4 billion pace one year ago. These housing market data are very important because they evidence a stabilization in the all-important housing sector. Likewise, CML and BSA reported January mortgage approvals were at their highest level since November 2003 while BBA reported a deceleration in activity. Cable also benefited from public finances data released this morning that saw public sector net borrowing at £12.6 billion. This means the U.K. government recorded its largest ever monthly surplus for the month January this year. These data precede next month’s Budget report from Chancellor of the Exchequer Brown. Wednesday’s industrial trends survey and Friday’s Q4 GDP data will be closely watched by traders. Cable offers are cited around the US$ 1.7490/ $1.7580 levels. The euro was little-changed vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.6860 level and was supported around the £0.6845 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.3055 level and was capped around the CHF 1.3115 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was about ten pips above the 76.4% retracement of the move from CHF 1.3195 to CHF 1.2555. The big driver in the market today was news that Nigerian militants may have destroyed an oil pipeline two days after taking nine oil workers hostage. Oil prices jumped on the news and traders moved into Swiss franc as a safe-haven play. On a similar note, Iran’s nuclear ambitions and snubbing of global calls to end its uranium enrichment can escalate at any time and the dollar remains vulnerable. Swiss January trade balance data will be released tomorrow. Dollar bids are cited around the CHF 1.2950 level. The euro and British pound lost ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.5610 and CHF 2.2765 levels, respectively.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105