User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday February 20, 2006 - 20:50:42 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: US Dollar - Is There Any More Room to Rally?

DailyFX Fundamentals 02-20-06

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

• US Dollar - Is There Any More Room to Rally?
• Hawkish Comments Continue to Pour Out of Euroland
• Market Divided on Bank of England Stance

US Dollar

Trading was extremely quiet today as the US markets remained closed for Presidents’ Day. Although we ended last week with a dose of positive US data, the greenback was either unchanged or weakened slightly against every major currency pair except for the Japanese Yen. Even though today’s holiday trading could be a good excuse for overall profit taking, which would then explain the dollar’s move, the sell-off against the Euro on Thursday and Friday in the context of stronger data suggests otherwise. The dollar’s lack of ability to continue the impressive rally that we have seen since January 24th signals that the number of buyers left in the market at this point may be limited. There are only 3 major pieces of US releases that we care about this week and those are the minutes from the Jan 31 FOMC meeting due out tomorrow, the consumer price index on Wednesday and Durable Goods on Friday. With a stronger producer price figure released last week, we are also looking for a strong rebound in consumer prices. Durable goods on the other hand are predicted to fall quite significantly due to a pullback in aircraft orders after 2 strong months of orders. The minutes from Greenspan’s last Federal Reserve meeting could garner a bit of interest if the former Fed Chairman left us with any parting words of wisdom. In all likelihood however, this week may very well be another week of range trading for the dollar. Last week’s strong US data suggests that GDP growth should be particularly robust in the next quarter, which would give the Federal Reserve a compelling reason to continue raising interest rates. On the other hand, the dollar’s rally does appear to be losing steam from a sentiment and technical perspective which means that the two factors could offset each other and keep tight range trading the predominant theme. Expect any continued sell-off in the dollar against the Euro and British pound to meet resistance at the 1.20 and 1.75 levels respectively.


The Euro ended the day virtually unchanged against the US dollar despite some positive economic data and comments. German producer prices for the month of January jumped 1.2 percent to the highest levels in 24 years which is sure to have raised inflation warning flags all over Europe. Italian industrial orders also rose significantly in the month of December. Expected to grow by only 0.9 percent, orders actually jumped by 2.3 percent. Sales on the other hand were expected to be flat but actually increased by 3.0 percent. For Italy, these signs are encouraging as growth in Europe begins to pickup thanks to the weakness of the Euro. ECB officials continue to be very hawkish. ECB member Liikanen echoed many of the recent comments that we have already heard on the need for the central bank to be “vigilant” on inflation, especially now that data has been improving. ECB Weber also indicated that inflation risks persist. We see no clearer sign from the ECB than we have recently of their intention to raise interest rates. Meanwhile the economic calendar from Europe is fairly heavy this week with French and German GDP due for release along with more inflation data and consumer spending reports region wide, the Eurozone trade balance and the German IFO survey of business sentiment.

British Pound

After Thursday’s impressive recovery, the British pound continued to gain strength against the US dollar today. Economic data was mixed with public finances dropping by GBP 21.1 billion, which was more than the markets -GBP 16 billion forecast. This brought the country’s monthly budget number to a new high of GBP15.3 billion. However the BBA mortgage lending report indicated that lending fell short of expectations by GBP 0.7 billion, illustrating slower mortgage lending growth after a strong fourth quarter. Meanwhile in the week ahead, the market will be bracing itself for the minutes from the last Bank of England meeting which is due out on Wednesday. Since sterling traders are primarily focused on whether the BoE will leave interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year or not, the BoE minutes will be particularly telling since it will shed some light on where the members of the policy committee stand and accordingly, how close we may be to another rate cut. The last time the minutes were released, the vote was 8-1 to keep rates unchanged. Right now, the forecasts are quite divided with some analysts calling for a vote of 9-0 last month, while others are predicting a far closer vote of 7-2 or tighter to keep interest rates unchanged.

Japanese Yen

Unlike most of the other majors, the Japanese Yen continued to weaken against the US dollar. The Japanese economic calendar is very light this week with nothing of extreme significance due for release. The debate continues on whether the Bank of Japan will be able to raise interest rates in the face of sharp resistance from the Japanese government. Most recently, the Bank of Japan warned of volatility and unreliability in the GDP deflator as a measure of inflation as compared to the consumer price index. The Vice Finance Minister however quickly swept in and assured the markets that deflation still persists. Ultimately, even if the BoJ was allowed the drop its quantitative easing policy, an immediate rate hike is not necessarily a given. The central bank may choose instead to wait another month or two before actually raising rates to give the market some time to price in the possible move. Additionally, even if the BoJ did raise rates, any move would probably be in no more than 25bp clips, which still leaves Japan with one of the lowest interest rates in the world and along with that USD/JPY as one of the most attractive carry trades in the world.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 23 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105