User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday February 21, 2006 - 14:56:47 GMT
GCI Financial - www.gcitrading.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (21 February 2006)



The euro came off further vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1895 level and was capped around the $1.1940 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.2190 to $1.1850 while today’s intraday low was right around the 61.8% retracement of the move from $1.1640 to $1.2325. Traders assumed additional long dollar exposure ahead of the release of today’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes from the end of January. Policymakers are expected to have discussed the need to tighten policy at least one more time and are likely to have discussed the seemingly low advance Q4 GDP figure of 1.1% with a strong potential for upward revisions. Currently, the fed funds futures market is pricing in about a 70% chance of another two +25bps moves higher by May and about an 80% chance the Fed will do so by June. Today’s meeting minutes will also be the last in which Fed Chairman Greenspan was an FOMC participant and will be closely scrutinized to learn his views on the economy at the time when he was departing the Fed. The Fed’s monetary policy stance was more neutral in its post-meeting statement as policymakers made it clear they are nearing the end of their tightening cycle. Tomorrow’s January consumer price inflation data and Friday’s durable goods numbers round out the week in data for the U.S. In eurozone news, European Central Bank President Trichet sounded hawkish in testimony yesterday when he said “through the short-term volatility to medium-term trends, our assessment continues to reflect a progressive strengthening of economic activity, supported in particular, by stronger investment, which should be followed by a gradual strengthening of consumption growth.” Trichet also noted inflation may move “somewhat higher” in the short-term and cited downward risks including “high and volatile oil prices and concerns about global imbalances.” Data released in the eurozone today saw the December EMU-12 trade balance notch a deficit of €900 million, unchanged from November’s revised figure and a stark contrast to the €5.5 billion surplus from December 2004. Additionally, the European Commission left its EMU-12 growth and inflation forecasts for 2006 unchanged from its November estimates. Policymakers now see 2006 inflation around 2.2%. The all-important German Ifo sentiment number will be released on Thursday. Euro offers are cited around the $1.1980/ 1.2060 levels.

¥/ CNY

The yen extended recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥118.95 level and was supported around the ¥118.25 level. Stops were hit above the ¥118.75 level, representing the 76.4% retracement of the move from ¥119.40 to ¥116.75. Economic and Fiscal Policy minister Yosano reiterated the Bank of Japan’s independence overnight, noting the government “must respect the central bank’s position (on monetary policy) as much as possible.” Government officials want BoJ to maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy as long as possible and are calling on the central bank to utilize the GDP deflator as its primary inflation measure. The GDP deflator has been negative for 31 consecutive quarters. BoJ Deputy Governor Muto countered this talk today saying “With regard to an end to the Bank of Japan's quantitative super-loose policy framework, we will carefully monitor economic and price conditions and then, based on our commitment linked to the CPI, will make an appropriate decision.” Core inflation is right around the zero per cent mark in Japan, suggesting the economy is just finally emerging from a long spell of deflation. The central bank, however, has pledged that it will not unwind its long-standing quantitative easing policy until inflation is sustainably above zero per cent. Many traders believe a shift in policy could take place as early as 28 April. The December trade balance and January corporate services price index will be released on Thursday. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 2.96% to close at ¥15,894.94. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥117.95/ 117.40 levels. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥141.65 level and was supported around the ¥141.05 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was just below the 61.8% retracement of the move from ¥143.60 to ¥137.10. The British pound and Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested offers around the ¥207.75 and ¥90.85 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback closed at CNY 8.0480 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 8.0477, while the greenback depreciated in the exchange-traded market, closing at CNY 8.0465, down from CNY 8.0475. The big news involving the yuan involves market chatter that U.S. Treasury officials are considering labeling China a “currency manipulator” when its report to Congress is released in April. Many U.S. politicians believe China has not permitted its yuan currency to appreciate enough and some have threatened protectionist legislation. Data released in China overnight saw January producer price inflation up 3.1% y/y and People’s Bank of China announced it expects PPI growth to decelerate this year. The central bank also reported it will “maintain a prudent monetary policy and maintain the continuity and stability of monetary policy.” Additionally, PBOC noted China “will perfect the management of the floating exchange rate mechanism, let market supply and demand play a fundamental role in the renminbi (yuan) exchange rate and maintain it at a reasonable and balanced level. The efficiency and flexibility of monetary policy is facing challenges from the imbalances of international balance of payments.”



The British pound continued its move higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.7475 level and was supported around the $1.7415 level. Chartists are eyeing the $1.7530 level as the pair’s next upside target, representing the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.7935 to $1.7280. Yesterday’s decent public sector net cash borrowing data have been a boon to sterling. Along the same lines, Ernst & Young ITEM Club last night predicted Chancellor of the Exchequer Brown will achieve the goals this year that will be enumerated in his Budget speech next month. Many economists believe the U.K. will register a budget deficit around £10.6 billion in 2006. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes from February will be released tomorrow followed by Q4 GDP data on Friday. Cable offers are cited around the $1.7625/ 1.7745 levels. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the £0.6810 level and was capped around the £0.6845 level. Euro bids are seen right around the £0.6800 figure.

CHF

The Swiss franc came off marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.3110 level and was supported around the CHF 1.3070 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was just below the 23.6% retracement of the move from CHF 1.2925 to CHF 1.3175. Data released in Switzerland today saw January exports rise a real 7.2% y/y while imports were up 12.3%. The merchandise trade surplus printed at CHF 1.214 billion, up 11.9%. Traders continue to monitor heightened geopolitical tensions in Nigeria and Iran and how they may spur some safe-haven buying of the franc. Militants’ attacks against Nigeria’s oil infrastructure and Iran’s nuclear ambition are at the forefront of traders’ radar screens now. Dollar bids are cited around the CHF 1.3050/ 1.2980 levels. The euro came off vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.5585 level while the British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 2.2885 level.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105