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Wednesday February 22, 2006 - 12:06:28 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 22-Feb-2006....1200 GMT


Euro @ 1.1877/80....Custer's Last Stand
-----------------------------------------
R: 1.1909 / 1.1919-29
S: 1.1866 / 1.1848-33
The Euro has fallen in the last hour or so, testing a Low near 1.1866. If it remains below 1.1900 now, it may be inclined to fall further towards 1.1833, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. A Day Close below 1.1866-48 could be particularly bearish, opening up the way for a fall towards 1.1646 (last year's Low).

This is the last test of strength for the Euro. If it does not want to enter into a long downtrend, it has to start moving up from here. We were Long at 1.1910 and have been stopped out at 1.1885 and would be willing to go Short on confirmation of Support breaks. Watching in the meanwhile.


$-Yen @ 118.76/80.....Resistance at 119?
-----------------------------------------
R: 118.97 / 119.13
S: 118.42-38 / 118.20-19 / 117.91
The Resistance at 119.00 is holding so far. While so, there are chances that the sentiment could slowly turn bearish. That's because 119.00 lies roughly on a signifiant Trendline joining the Highs at 121.41 (05-Dec), 121.38 (07-Dec) and 119.42 (03-Feb). Of course, in case of a srong rise past 119.00-13, we could well see an upmove towards 120.

Holding:
$25K Short at 118.76, SL 119.00, TP 118.38


Euro-Yen @ 141.07/12...Exiting Long
----------------------------------------------
R: 141.48-53 / 142.32
S: 140.96-84 / 140.62-40
There has been a dip in the Euro-Yen due to a fall in the Euro-Dollar, to the lower end of its trading range of 141.60 and 141.00. The important Support now is 140.96-84. In case that breaks (possibly on the back of a further fall in EUR-USD), then the Cross could fall towards140.62-40. That could be quite bearish.

For now, while the immediate Support at 140.96-84 holds, a small rally towards 141.30 cannot be ruled out. Further out, the Cross might be quite volatile in a wide range of 140.50-142.50. We are no longer comfortable with our Long position and would like to exit.

Exit Trade:
Exit at current level the EUR 20K Long entered at 141.30




$-Swiss @ 1.3121/26....Upside Breakout?
----------------------------------------
R: 1.3130-38 / 1.3168-77
S: 1.3092 / 1.3064-56 / 1.3013
The $-Swiss now stands near the upper end of the range of 1.3120 and 1.3060, between which it had been trading in for the last 3 days. The BIG question is the 200-Week MA Resistance at 1.3138 likely tobreak? Above that level, the Resistance is at 1.3168-77, last Friday’s High (when we were Long). On the downside strong Supports come in at 1.3092 now and then at 1.3064-56. Since the bias on all the terms are bullish, we would like to buy a dip or a rally.

Order:
Buy $25K at 1.3088, SL 1.3050, TP open
OR
Buy $25K at 1.3150, SL 1.3080, TP Open


Cable @ 1.7397/7402....Sell on rally
------------------------------------------------
R: 1.7415 / 1.7445-69
S: 1.7376-67 / 1.7328-20
The last three days of slow upmove (from 1.7333 on Friday to 1.7478 yesterday) has shown some reaction today as the pair failed to rise above the 1.7483 (38.20% retracement of the fall from 03-Feb-06 high 1.7812 to 14-Feb-06 low 1.7279) and broke below the earlier support at 1.7415. Now on the downside, critical Support awaits at 1.7367. A fall below this level might lead to a fall to 1.7330 later today and confirm more bearishness to follow in the next few days. In case the Support holds, there could be an intraday bounce back to 1.7445, which may provide selling opportunity again.

Earlier sell order placed at 1.7530 did not get executed and we prefer to sell on rise again.

Order:
Sell GBP 15K at 1.7430, SL 1.7485, TP 1.7350.




Aussie @ 0.7356/61...Watch range bottom at 0.7347
--------------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7383-91 / 0.7419-20 / 0.7433-38
S: 0.7347-36 / 0.7313-0.7295
The Aussie has fallen to 0.7358, near to the range bottom at 0.7347 (of range 0.7347-0.7444) and prospects of any intraday bounce back look bleak. Should there be a fall below 0.7347-36, we may see a further fall to 0.7290 in a couple of days. An intraday bounce if seen on the other hand, might see a rise to 0.7390, but is unlikely to see any major rise again. Hence, we prefer to sell after a convincing break below 0.7347.




Happy Trading!

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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