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Thursday February 23, 2006 - 12:46:09 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 23-Feb-2006...1238 GMT

Euro @ 1.1952/6....Resistance at 1.1990
R: 1.1975-85-90-2002
S: 1.1922-06 / 1.1890 / 1.1859
The Euro has risen well since the morning, to the 1.1970 level suggested. Critical and strong Resistance at 1.1990. If it does not hold (breaks), it might signal a rise towards 1.2120. If and while it holds, the overall picture will remain ranged/ bearish on balance.

$-Yen @ 117.08/13....Holding Long
R: 117.26-39 / 117.82
S: 116.95-88-78 / 116.62 / 116.13
200-MA Support on the 4-hour at 116.88. Trend Support on Daily Candles coming up from the 113.42 Low on 12-Jan. Additionally, 116.95 is the statistically projected Max Low for this week. Thus, 116.95-78 is a very critical Support region. While it holds, we may see a bounce back towards 117.30 or perhaps even 117.60-80. If this Support breaks, however, it could open up the way towards 116.15 and lower.

$25K Long at 117.15, SL 116.69, TP 117.50

Euro-Yen @ 139.96/01....Crucial Support at 139.55
R: 140.16-27 / 140.68
S: 139.79-69 / 139.55
Euro-Yen too has tested 139.57 the statistically projected Max Low for the week, like Dollar-Yen. Things could turn bearish towards 138.00, should there be a Day Close below 139.55. While the market trades above 139.75 in the immediate context, however, there are chances of a small rise towards 140.30.

Unfortunately, our Long at 140.14 has already been stopped out at 139.70

$-Swiss @ 1.3044/49....Could test 1.2985
R: 1.3060 / 1.3090-3109 / 1.3173
S: 1.3022-10 / 1.2986-70
There has been a sharp fall in the $-Swiss in the last few hour. For the second time in the last 6-7 days, it has tested 1.3150 and the 200-Week MA and has come down, showing the significance of the area. It is currently trading below the important area of 1.3060, which was the bottom of the earlier range 1.3060-3120. Since that is broken, the fall may continue till 1.2986-70, strong/ crucial Support. On the upside strong Resistances appear at 1.3060 and then at 1.3090-3109. The intraday bias has turned neutral now.

Frustratingly, we were again stopped out of our Long (entered at 1.3150) at 1.3080

Cable @ 1.7515/20...Resistance at 1.7576
R: 1.7550 / 1.7566-76 / 1.7594-99
S: 1.7495 / 1.7447-23
Sharp rise in Cable today in the overall Dollar fall seen today. However, the picture remains overall bearish while the very important Resistances at 1.7532 and 1.7566-76 hold. If so, we would not be surprised to see a fall back to 1.7495 and 1.7450, maybe tomorrow. That said, a Day Close above 1.7576 could turn out to be very bullish and put the downside into serious doubt.

Our Short at 1.7430 has been stopped out at 1.7485. We’ve had a string of losses today and are staying out, licking our wounds.

Aussie @ 0.7410/15.....Could go either way
R: 0.7431-44 / 0.7460-61
S: 0.7373-63 / 0.7331
Instead of falling, the Aussie has bounced back into the range of 0.7347-0.7444. If the immediate Resistance at 0.7422 breaks, it could rise further to test the range top at 0.7444 either today or tomorrow. While the Resistance at 0.7422 holds, however, a fall back to 0.7385 cannot be ruled out either.

Our short position taken at 0.7375 got stopped out at 0.7395 and we prefer to stay out for now.

Happy Trading!


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