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Tuesday July 6, 2004 - 10:50:23 GMT -

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DailyFX Technical Report 07-06-2004

DailyFX Technical Report 07-06-2004

Euro takes to the bullish regression trend but fails to register overbought readings

Euro takes to the bullish regression trend but fails to register overbought readings
Yen continues to defy the majority while zigzagging over the 50% retracement of 103.45-115.00
Sterling tests upper trendline drawn from early June; where the most recent trend vacillated

Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD has traded on bid since the weekly session open in Asia. Friday's highs (1.2330/50) and the 50% retracement of 1.2930-1.1765 (1.2345) provides near-term resistance as the pair approaches the Fib Arc drawn from the last test of this level (6/8) and the lows (1.1960) that shortly ensued. The pair has decided to trade back into the regression trend channel beginning 4/23 on the test of the 50% retracement of 1.0800-1.2930. The level also coincides with the centerline of the larger regression trend that extends all the way back to mid '00. Daily oscillators are rather unimpressive surprisingly; while, intraday studies also remain fairly unimposing (with the exception of the stochastic (91.71) overbought reading) on the heels of Friday's momentous swing into the bullish of the two recent regression trend channels.

The USD/JPY seems to have come under slight selling pressure as it lofts into former support (109.35/50) made late may to early June. The intraday 240-minute chart reveals an RSI (65.34) trying to make its third go at higher readings while prices do likewise. This is indicative of some confusion between participants with the macro scope traders watching the MACD gather steam to the upside on the daily and weekly but the ST traders looking to overbought conditions and Fib S/R congestion. The 50% retracement of 103.45-115.00 (109.20) should support things on the downside with the 61.8% retracement (107.85) subsequent to that.

At the moment GBP/USD is kissing the mildly descending trendline (1.8320/50) drawn from the periodic highs made while the trend began to falter late May. A move above 1.8350/65 would be significant but seems unlikely given underlying near term strength in the USD and little technical evidence of a formidable prowess of sellers. The Asia session created a doji however, leaving us cautiously optimistic on the future direction of this pair. The 100-day EMA tracks below at 1.8095 with the monthly pivot (1.8235) coming into play prior to that. Monthly S1 (1.7975) should serve as a tipping point for kamikaze buyers, as the level coincides with solid resistance made on various occasions historically. Intraday oscillators have curled up a bit turning back towards overbought conditions (RSI 71.45, MACD histogram sloped down) noted yesterday. Early in London trading we have seen quotes near 1.8350 snatched aggressively, serving to cap the bid.

The USD/CHF is probably the most interesting of the majors in that the pair trades just a scant 200 pips from multi-year lows tested in January. The pair once again trades well below the 100 and 200-day MA's and is perhaps the most convincing evidence that this market is still very much uncertain if not down right bearish on the USD. Asia trading has created a hammer formation located at the bottom of last week's crater leaving us to believe the following sessions' could be bountiful.


Comment from 06/01
On 05/10 EUR/GBP had a low at 6638 (slightly above our 6600/30 zone) and rallied to the 6819 High on 05/17, 181pts higher. The market fell from the level to reach yesterday's low at 6641, 178pts lower. The outlook is still quite neutral and a slight bearish bias is present. It is important to note though that we are now sitting on an intermediate S tested many times in the past weeks. As a result, bulls will probably get involved at 6600/20 in order to exploit the Low BB and a strong Fibo confluence (50% Fibo from the 01 - 03 bull wave & 23.6% Fibo from the Mar - Apr bear wave). A sustained breakout below would open the door to 6500/20 (swing low & 50% Fibo from the 00 - 03 bull wave) and 6410/50 (former breakout pt now S & 38.2% Fibo from the Apr 01 - 03 bull wave). Aggressive bears will probably try some play at 6720/50 thanks to the 100 SMA and 61.8% Fibo from the Mar - Apr bear wave. More conservative bears will consider 6810/40 (again!) thanks to the 50% Fibo from the Dec - Apr bear wave, High BB and 200 SMA.

On 06/04 EUR/GBP had a low at 6621 (slightly above our 6600/20 area) before a quick bounce to the 6708 High on 06/07 - 87pts higher. The area broke on 06/09 and the market found the 6542 low (above our 6500/20 zone). A couple of days ago, the cross found the 6722 High and the 6672 low - 50pts lower (07/02). The outlook is now completely neutral and the pair seems to be stuck in another range. Bears will step in at 6770/6790 in order to exploit the 200 SMA and a decent Fibo confluence (38.2% Fibo from the Jan 01 - Jun 04 bull wave & 50% Fibo from the Jan - Jun bear wave). A breakout above would open the 6900 level. Bulls will have to consider 2 zones: 6630/50 thanks to a robust Fibo confluence (38.2% Fibo from the May - Jun bear wave & 50% Fibo from the 02 - 03 bull wave) and 6500/20 thanks to the low BB and another important Fib zone (50% Fibo from the 00 - 03 bull wave & 61.8% Fibo from the 02 - 03 bull wave).


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