User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday February 23, 2006 - 17:27:48 GMT
Foreign Exchange Analytics -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Next Big FX Move Structural, Not Cyclical...April

I am sorry but nothing Fukui said Thursday in parliamentary hearings qualifies in my book as a shift in policy. Indeed the Governor seemed to try and check press reports that something new and different is afoot at the Bank of Japan when he told Dow Jones Newswire that he emphasized nothing in his other words Fukui was surprised by the hullabaloo in the financial markets.

To begin with Fukui said the Bank is prepared to end quantitative easing immediately once conditions for doing so are met - that core CPI stabilizes above zero. He said core CPI would be positive from January on. But Fukui and other Board members have been more explicit about ending quantitative easing...April to be exact, when the new fiscal year begins. This would provide a quarter's worth of CPI data and better basis to determine if assumptions are correct and inflation has stabilized above zero. Keep in mind the GDP deflator in Q4 was down 1.6% y/ not all inflation measures are aligned.

Markets also seemed to seize on Fukui's remarks about normalizing interest rates. Here he was repetitive...not immediate, but some point in the
future. There is no date attached to this the way there is the quantitative easing. And frankly I think the BoJ will be hard pressed to carve out one rate hike this year much less several.

Which leads me to the notion that the yen carry trade is dead. I don't think so. It is just not as frothy as it was a few hours ago. Risk aversion in FX land has risen this week, especially in the more exotic high yield currencies like the Icelandic krona, the Hungarian forint and the Brazilian real. And it is not surprising that the Kiwi has been hit hard against the USD, AUD, EUR and about a one-sided currency bet/market.

But shift up in risk aversion away from risk neutrality does not mean a whole lot for the US dollar and the euro where positions are reasonably balanced or markets two-way.

Furthermore I am not looking to a cyclical interest rate or growth story to drive the next big move in the euro, dollar or yen. Central bank policy in the respective locals are somewhat if not entirely offsetting (least so in Japan, today's noise notwithstanding).

In a similar vein I believe the German IFO index gain today does little to alter the outlook for ECB rate policy. My stomach gets knotted up every time I read that the report secures an ECB rate hike next Thursday. Was there ever a doubt before IFO? How many ECB officials does it take to say there will be a rate increase in March before the market believes it? Clearly more than is needed to screw in a light bulb based on market commentary today.

The cyclical theme of competing interest and growth rates is not the pathway to the next major move in FX full stop.

The next big move in FX land for the triad currencies and namely the dollar will come when the market focus switches back to the structural imbalances that demand a lower dollar. I think April is the month where this theme reemerges. US Congress is moving on protectionist legislation to protest China's meager currency policy reforms, the US Treasury, in its April FX report to Congress, is compelled to name China a currency manipulator for failing to let the yuan move more freely (higher), Chinese President Hu is in the US for a state visit and G7 meets ahead of the World Bank/IMF meeting April 21-22. G7 can no longer put off the adjustment process without securing a disorderly adjustment with its current de facto benign neglect approach.

A more significant revaluation by China in April (maybe late March) could well be the key to the structurally weak dollar door. If China does do what no one thinks it will based on official rhetoric from its political leadership, then Europe and Japan will be far more inclined to accept the inevitable - a broad US dollar decline, and advocate one. It is worth noting that most major turning points in the dollar (Plaza, Louvre, Rubin strong name a few) were led by G7 officials. This is somewhat to be expected given that markets are prone to overshooting and undershooting. Maybe I am giving G7 and China too much credit here. But the fact is the longer adjustment process is delayed the more severe the process will be when it comes...and it will come, dark matter or no dark matter.

David Gilmore


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 23 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105