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Friday February 24, 2006 - 12:14:21 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 24-Feb-2006....1204 GMT

Euro @ 1.1899/1902.....Ranged
R: 1.1912-36 / 1.1950 / 1.1975-80
S: 1.1874-61 / 1.1848
Testing the lower end of the range 1.1850-1980. Those who have guts will buy, assuming that the range remains intact while it is not broken. We do not have the stomach to trade this. In case the range breaks on the downside, a fall towards 1.1800 and lower would start. Staying out.

$-Yen @ 116.74/78....No trades
R: 116.95-117.13 / 117.40-50
S: 116.58-42-37 / 115.98 / 115.47
Dollar-Yen rallied to 117.13 intra-day but has fallen back again. Support at 116.58-37 could be vulnerable to a break. If so, a further fall towards 115.98 and 115.47 may be seen. The latter is a strong Support and may hold for now. In case the immediate Support at 116.58-37 does not break and the market moves up past 117.13 instead, it may extend up to 117.40-50.

Not willing to commit to any trades/ orders at the moment.

Euro-Yen @ 138.95/39.00.....Difficult to sell
R: 139.19 / 139.35-41 / 139.73
S: 138.85-75 / 138.58-46 / 138.00
The early-Asia low of 138.85 has been extended down to 138.75, but further follow-through selling does not seem to be kicking in yet. In case selling starts again in the US hours, a further fall towards 138.58-46 may be seen, which falls on the trendline (Weekly charts, joining the Low of 130.60 on 24-June 05 and the Low of 137.10 on 13-Jan 06). While the Cross remains above 138.46, therefore, it is difficult to sell it at these low levels. In case it finds Support today, we'll look to buy later.

Resistances on the upside are as given above.

$-Swiss @ 1.3116/21....Buy Dip & Sell rally
R: 1.3120 / 1.3160-71
S: 1.3097-88 / 1.3025-17
There has been a small rally in the $-Swiss but it has not done enough to provide any fresh evidence of a new direction. As of now it has got trapped within the range of 1.3160 on the upside and 1.3020 on the downside. The Resistances are still at 1.3120 and at 1.3160-71. On the downside the Supports are 1.3060 and at 1.3020. We would still like to sell a rally and buy a dip.

Buy $25K at 1.3035, SL 1.3000, TP open
Sell $25K at 1.3145, SL 1.3180, TP open

Cable @ 1.7493/8....Resistance has held. Support 1.7420
R: 1.7506-12 / 1.7524-39 / 1.7561-76
S: 1.7476-65 / 1.7458 / 1.7430-20
The Cable remained below its Resistance at 1.7557 and 1.7576 (mentioned in the morning) and has fallen a bit. Now the intraday support level 1.7475-65 is being tested, a break below which might see a fall to 1.7430-20 today itself. While the Support holds, the pair might remain in a range of 1.7465-1.7540, with an indecisive bias. The trendline Resistance at 1.7552 (drawn from 25-Jan-06 high 1.7938, joining the 03-Feb-06 high 1.7812) looks strong and so does Support at 1.7420.

No trades.

Aussie @ 0.7400/05....Ranged
R: 0.7419-27 / 0.7435-42 / 0.7455-62
S: 0.7390-80 / 0.7344
The pair continues to trade within the indecisive range of 0.7365-0.7420 and has found minor support at 0.7390 within the range. In case of a rise above immediate Resistance 0.7420, there could be a test of the range top at 0.7444 (of range 0.7344-0.7444). But a rise past the range top looks unlikely. While the immediate Resistance holds, the pair might tur bearish and dip back to 0.7365 and later to 0.7344 also.

Happy Trading!


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