Monday February 27, 2006 - 11:29:20 GMT
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Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
Yen and metals one more time...
â€śAs E. Derman, head of quantitative strategies at Goldman Sachs, put it, in physics you are playing against God, who does not change his mind very often. In finance, you are playing against Godâ€™s creatures, whose feelings are ephemeral, at best unstable, and the news on which they are based keeps streaming in.â€ť
Taken from Why Stock Markets Crash, Didier Sornette
Despite most of our hopes and expectations, itâ€™s likely a time will come when liquidity is reigned in by the central banksâ€”at least the â€śat the marginâ€ť stuff that has been driving the bubbulicious asset markets weâ€™ve enjoyed.
Are we there or getting close? We never really â€śknowâ€ť about these things without the illusive gift of hindsight. But, the move in $-yen, on the crystallization that Japan has emerged from the grips of deflation and can now begin to normalize monetary policy, could be the ringing bell we donâ€™t often get near a top.
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