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Monday February 27, 2006 - 12:16:39 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 27-Feb-2006....1206 GMT

Euro @ 1.1859/62....Bearish now
R: 1.1865 / 1.1890-1912 / 1.1957
S: 1.1825 / 1.1799-84
The Euro is trading below 1.1899, the lower end of the 1.1899-2060 "range of indecision" it had been in last week. 1.1899 is the 61.8% retracement of the rise from 1.1638 to 1.2321 and now acts as a Resistance. This is a bearish development/ confirmation, calling for a fall towards 1.1799 initially and then 1.1638 all over again.

Sell EUR 20K at 1.1885, SL 1.1928, TP open
Sell EUR 20K at 1.1942, SL 1.1982, TP open

$-Yen @ 116.17/22....Sell on further rally
R: 116.33-42 / 116.65-75
S: 115.97 / 115.67 / 115.47-39
Dollar-Yen has recovered slightly after its early morning fall. Strong Resistance in the 116.42-65 region. A rally thereto might be worth selling into for a target in the 115.47-17 region. A rise past 116.65 may target 117.22

Sell $25K at 116.50, SL 116.85, TP 115.60

Euro-Yen @ 137.78/83...200-MA at 137.50
R: 137.75-79 / 138.22
S: 137.50 / 137.19 / 136.83
As expected, the Euro-Yen faced strong Resistance near 138.00 and has again slipped from that level. The immediately critical Support now is 137.50, the 200-MA on the Daily. A fall below that can target 137.19 and then at 136.83. NOTE that 136.83 is the 20-Month MA and also the statistically projected Max Low for the week. So, it might hold for the time being. On the upside Strong Resistances are present at 137.75-79 level and then at 138.00-10 level. Intraday, the Cross may continue to trade between 137.19 and 138.00.

$-Swiss @ 1.3183/8...Look for 1.33-35
R: 1.3225 / 1.3263-70
S: 1.3184-60 / 1.3160-51 / 1.3133-18
There has been nice bullish consolidation above the breakout of 1.3160 in the $-Swiss so far in the day. The fact that it has been trading above 1.3160 is a very good omen. Now on the upside there is a minor Resistance near 1.3225 above which there could be a rally towards 1.3263-70. On the downside, the strong Support is at 1.3184 and then at 1.3151-43. The 200-Week MA is currently at 1.3125. On the whole, the intraday and the weekly bias are bullish.

$25K at 1.3200, SL 1.3130 (up from 1.3120), TP open

Cable @ 1.7400/05...Support at 1.7383
R: 1.7424-37 / 1.7457-60
S: 1.7383-73 / 1.7327
The Cable seems to have found intraday Support at 1.7383 . While this Support holds, we might see a further rally towards Resistances are 1.7425 and 1.7457. A rise past that is not envisaged, though. BUT just in case the Cable rises past 1.7457, it might target 1.7500, the statistically projected Max High for the day.

NOTE, the Cable seems to be the strongest among the three European currencies given that EURGBP is falling and the EURCHF is rising.

On the downside, a break of Support at 1.7383 might lead to a fall further to 1.7330. On the weekly candle chart, 1.7327 happens to be a trendline Support, drawn from 02-Dec-05 Low 1.7047, joining the 30-Dec-05 Low 1.7129 and joining the 17-Feb-06 low 1.7279. If this level is also broken, then the Cable has the chances of turning bearish to 1.7100 in a couple of weeks.

Aussie @ 0.7381/86....Crucial juncture for Long-term
R: 0.7391-0.7404 / 0.7417-28
S: 0.7372-66 / 0.7337-30
The bearish pressure is increasing with good Resistances at 0.7400, at 0.7428 and at 0.7451
A break of important Support at 0.7366 could trigger a fall towards 0.7330 later today.

Looking at the long term, the Aussie is now trading at a very crucial juncture. A fall below 0.7330 could signal a fall towards 0.7000 and a possible reversal of the upmove since 2001. On the other hand, if there is strong buying at 0.7330 and the Aussie rises past 0.7500 in the next couple of weeks, it may signal a strong resumption of the uptrend, targeting 0.8000 initially.

Happy Trading!


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