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Tuesday February 28, 2006 - 12:00:55 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 28-Feb-2006...1144 GMT

Euro @ 1.1886/90....Holding Short
R: 1.1905 / 1.1923 / 1.1951
S: 1.1882-73 / 1.1859 / 1.1825
The Euro has risen back to the strong Resistance region of 1.1895-1905 after dipping initially to 1.1841 during the day. Important Resistance above 1.1905 comes near 1.1923. While this Resistance holds, we would look for a resumption of the overall fall towards 1.1830 either today or tomorrow. A rise past 1.1923, on the other hand, would target 1.1950+.

EUR 20K Short at 1.1890, SL 1.1940 (down from 1.1960), TP 1.1770.

$-Yen @ 116.23/27....Greater chances of 115.47 now?
R: 116.21-36 / 116.57
S: 116.06 / 115.88 / 115.67
The Resistance at 116.60-70 mentioned in the morning has held and Dollar-Yen has come down since then. With this, the chances of a further decline towards 115.70 and then 115.47 and even 115.17 have increased. A rise past 116.40 now could take the market up towards 116.60 and then possibly higher.

Euro-Yen @ 138.18/23...Looking to sell
R: 138.50-66 / 139.09 / 139.32
S: 137.79-77 / 137.19 / 136.99-83
The Cross has chosen to move up since the morning. There is a chance that it may target 138.50-66, which in our view is an excellent level to go short. On the downside below 138.00 the Supports come in at 137.79-77 and then at 137.19. Just in case the Cross moves further up, past 138.66, it could negate the downside and target 139+.

Sell EUR 20K at 138.48, SL 138.80, TP 137.30. As soon as market trades at 138.00 bring SL down to 138.48 (Entry).

$-Swiss @ 1.3171/6...Holding Long
R: 1.3197-3207 / 1.3263-74
S: 1.3158 / 1.3135-30 / 1.3113-3098
The correction which started this morning in the $-Swiss has turned out to be bigger than previously thought. Now, the important Supports come in at 1.3157, which is the low for the current week and then at 1.3135-30. Incase that is also broken there could be a decline towards 1.3113-3098. On the other hand, now on rallies, the Resistances come in at 1.3197-3207 and then at 1.3263-74. The pair may trade between 1.3135-30 and 1.3197-3207 for the rest of the day.

$25K Long at 1.3200, SL 1.3130, TP 1.3270. As soon as the market trades 1.3200 hereafter, bring SL up to 1.3150

Cable @ 1.7408/13...Bearish while below 1.7520
R: 1.7487-92 / 1.7515
S: 1.7450-45 / 1.7422 / 1.7375
The Cable has risen well during the day to test important Resistance at 1.7487-92. Further strong Resistance lies near 1.7515. While the market remains below these in the US session now, we could see the Cable falling back towards 1.7400 by tomorrow. Just in case the Resistance at 1.7515 breaks, it might signal a rise towards 1.7600, possibly negating the downside for some days at least.

We are already holding a Short in EURUSD and a Long in USDCHF and hence are not taking a Short position in Cable now. Otherwise a Short may be considered near current levels with SL above 1.7520.

Aussie @ 0.7408/13....Crucial juncture for Long-term
R: 0.7419 / 0.7444
S: 0.7391-82 / 0.7343
The Aussie continues to trade sideways between a broad range of 0.7343-7444 in the current scenario. It may remain ranged for another few days, telescoping into 0.7385.

Looking at the long term, the Aussie is now trading at a very crucial juncture. A fall below 0.7330 could signal a fall towards 0.7000 and a possible reversal of the upmove since 2001. On the other hand, if there is strong buying at 0.7330 and the Aussie rises past 0.7500 in the next couple of weeks, it may signal a strong resumption of the uptrend, targeting 0.8000 initially.

Happy Trading!


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