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Wednesday March 1, 2006 - 12:39:06 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 01-Mar-2006....1233 GMT

Euro @ 1.1940/45....Use Options to make money
Jan and Feb of this year remind me of the frustration of Jan-Feb 2002. At that time, the Euro had been trading in the 0.8560-9060 region. An Uptrend was expected to develop but was just not happening. Every time you thought there was a good trending signal, it only turned out to be a false break.

Ultimately, by the time the Euro did embark on a long term upmove above 0.9200 in May-02, many Trading Accounts had been severly depleted and very few Traders had the enegry and enthusiasm (let alone the money) to climb onto the young uptrend. In fact, several people doubted the newly
established Euro upmove for a long time and kept selling the Euro.

The first two months of this year have also been marked by false starts. The first one was the strong rise above the 200-day MA (then 1.2177) on 23-Jan when the Euro touched a High near 1.2325. It fell back thereafter, of course, as is recorded by history and is trading well below the 200-day MA (now at 1.2066). This is potentially bearish for the medium/ long term. But, the second false start, this time on the downside, was yesterday when the Euro touched a Low near 1.1825 only to rise subsequently to 1.1953

What does one do in this environment? The first priority is to minimise the inevitable losses AND to retain mental sanity. Then we can try and make money. One way to do that is to trade the range (say 1.1625-1.2275) in the Spot/ Cash market for the next few weeks.

The other way to make money in this environment is through an Options structure. You will RECEIVE money upfront in this structure. You won't be Paying Option Premium. If you are interested in this, please feel to write to us, or call. We would be glad to explain the structure to you.

$-Yen @ 116.08/12....One more fall towards 115.50?
R: 116.28-32 / 116.45-55-62 / 116.85-92
S: 115.84 / 115.45 / 115.19-04
Dollar-Yen has bounced well from 115.45 today. This is suggestive of a recovery towards 117.22 before the important BOJ meeting on 08-March. NOTE, however, immediately important Resistance at 116.55. While this holds, one more fall towards 115.45-20 cannot be ruled out for tomorrow.

As such, buying on a fresh decline towards 115.50 might be worth a try.

Euro-Yen @ 138.62/67....Resistance at 138.95
R: 138.95 / 139.32-44
S: 138.50 / 138.20-03 / 137.24
Good recovery in Euro-Yen since yesterday. Important Resistance now at 138.95. If that is broken, a further rise towards 139.32-44, or even 140.20 may be seen. While the Resistance at 138.95 holds, we could see a dip to a minor Support coming in at 138.50 and then an important one at 138.19-137.92. Below that the whole bearish bias would again resurface. The bias is currently neutral and we would not like to trade at the current time.

$-Swiss @ 1.3072/7...Watch Support at 1.3055
R: 1.3092-3108 / 1.3119-22 / 1.3157-65
S: 1.3054-47 / 1.3022
The $-Swiss seems to be slowly extending the sharp fall seen last night. It is trading below 1.3090 (100-MA on the 4-Hourly) and the trendline formed on the 4-Hourly, joining the low of 1.2574 on 25-Jan-06 and the low of 1.3020 on 23-Feb-06. But, NOTE the very important/ critical Support which comes in at 1.3055. The overall outlook will remain Bullish while the Support holds. In case this Support breaks, however, it could trigger a fall towards 1.2980 initially.

We would not bet on this Support breaking convincingly today, though, because the statistically projected Max Low for the day is 1.3022.

Cable @ 1.7560/65....Crucial Resistance at 1.7600
R: 1.7584-7600 / 1.7640
S: 1.7515 / 1.7493-80
In rising past 1.7500 yesterday, the Cable has triggered chances of further upside towards 0.7650+. The Resistance that needs to break for this to happen is 1.7600. If it holds, however, and the Cable falls back below 1.7500 today, the rise since yesterday could turn out to be false. A Day Close above 1.7600 opens up the path towards 1.7700-50

Aussie @ 0.7437/42...Watch 0.7415 and 0.7455
R: 0.7445-55 / 0.7480-92 / 0.7516-26
S: 0.7423-16 / 0.7400 / 0.7385
Watch the statistically projected Max High for today at 0.7445-55. In case the Aussie closes above this today, it could rise towards 0.7515 by tomorrow. While the Resistance at 0.7455 holds, may be chances of a dip towards Support at 0.7415, which, in turn, may or may not hold.

We'd like to watch today and go Long tomorrow either if Resistance at 0.7455 breaks or the Support at 0.7415 holds.

Happy Trading!


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