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Thursday March 2, 2006 - 11:09:33 GMT
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Forex Trading Strategies

Strong ISM yesterday and ECB jitters knock back the EUR a bit - key test for the single currency at Trichet's press conference.

Today may launch EUR/USD on its next larger swing towards either 1.1650 or 1.2200.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Switzerland GDP for Q4 out at 0.5% vs. 0.6% expected
• Germany Retail Sales for Jan. out at 2.7% vs. 1.0% expected
• Australia Retail Sales rise +0.8% vs. +0.3% expected, Building Approvals fall -1.9% vs. +1.5% expected.
• US ISM Manufacturing for Feb. out at 56.7 vs. 55.5 expected. Prices Paid at 62.5 vs. 64.0 expected.
• US Weekly Crude Supplies build a bit more than expected – storage still close to record higher levels.
Market Moves: market was mostly quiet in Asian session

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
The market didn't want to commit to the stronger EUR yesterday with the better than expected US ISM Manufacturing data and before it gets a chance of seeing the whites of Mr. Trichet's eyes today at his press conference at 1330 GMT. Expect a 25 bp hike at the actual rate announcement - an expect to hear the word "vigilant" a few times. Looking at the European stock markets, European growth and inflation data, and the monetarist view, the ECB is clearly behind the curve and there could be the chance of some strong performance for the single currency if this "EuroZone needs to catch up with its data" theme blossoms. This requires, of course, that the US rate view doesn't outshine. The obvious short-term trigger higher for EUR/USD is 1.1970. Consider that the ECB rate may plausibly be 100 basis points higher a year from now, while it's a bit hard to imagine the Fed continuing the rate hike diet beyond 5.00% (meaning only another 50 bp of hiking from present) . Still - the proof is in the market moves, and we remain cautious. The 50-day average trading range in EUR/USD has plummeted to one of the lowest levels in three years - suggesting that we're getting close to some kind of pivot point.

The JPY continues to consolidate, rather than finding renewed strength as we expected yesterday - still we look for a pivot there soon. We'll allow 117.00 in USD/JPY on brief spikes - but we still strongly prefer the downside. Consider short-dated put options on that one. Tonight's data looks vital for the JPY view - with everything from employment and spending data to inflation data scheduled for release at 23:30 GMT tonight. The inflation data will likely be the key trigger for now one way or another.

A bit of momentum divergence on the 4-hour USD/CAD chart might be an opportunity for contrarians to try for 60-80 pips of consolidation back to the 1.1430/60 zone. The ATR(50) for USD/CAD is also at its lowest level in three years. A warning sign that the CAD bulls have feasted about all they can pretty soon?

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
www.saxobank.com

 

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