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Friday March 3, 2006 - 12:24:50 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 03-Mar-2006...1212 GMT

Euro @ 1.2022/5....200-day MA at 1.2060
R: 1.2040 / 1.2060-70 / 1.2099
S: 1.2000 / 1.1976-69 / 1.1951
The 200-MA (Daily charts) provides important Resistance overhead at 1.2060. Immediate Support at 1.2000. While that holds, one more test of 1.2050-60 cannot be ruled out. In case of a fall below 1.2000, look for 1.1976-69, maybe 1.1951, the statistically projected Max Low for the day.

$-Yen @ 116.40/44...Prospects mixed
R: 116.53-67 / 117.20
S: 116.14-07 / 115.85
In the morning we said we'd like to go Long again for a possible rise towards 117.20 if the immediate Resistance at 116.67 is broken. But the statistically projected Max High for the day at 116.53 also poses Resistance. Thus the Resistances have only a 50% chance of breaking. And while they hold, a dip back towards 116.00 cannot be ruled out.
As the prospects look mixed on a Friday, it might be better to stay out.

Euro-Yen @ 139.96/140.01...Multi-layered Resistances
R: 140.23-39-67-78-97
S: 139.75 / 139.50 / 139.15-11
The Resistance at 140.23 has held well so far and the Euro-Yen has come off a little after the sharp rally of morning. We have several layers of Resistances stretching from 140.23 to 140.97 and its difficult to see the Cross moving up past these today. Immediate Support seen at 139.75 and then at 139.50. If these break, then a further fall towards 139.15 may be seen.

For the day there could be indecisive movement within 139.71 and 140.35

$-Swiss @ 1.2989/94....Possibly Bearish, but no trades
R: 1.3025-34 / 1.3062-76
S: 1.2978-74 / 1.2966-60 / 1.2940
$-Swiss has remained below 1.3025 through the day which may be significant given that 1.3025 is an important Resistance. On the downside it is still Supported by the 200-MA on the 4-Hourly charts, which comes in at 1.2962 and . There may be a decline towards 1.2900 if 1.2962 is broken. The significant part of this week’s trading was the failure of $-Swiss to stay above its 200 Week MA which is now at 1.3124. Currently the market has a bearish bias, but follow-through below 1.2962 cannot be taken for granted.

No trades

Cable @ 1.7554/9...Range 1.76-74 intact
R: 1.7543 / 1.7581 / 1.7625
S: 1.7475 / 1.7450 / 1.7427
The Cable remains ranged between 1.76 and 1.74 (extendable to 1.7625 and 1.7370). Trading looks erratic and might be best avoided for a while. The longer term outlook remains bearish while the market remains below 1.76

Just in case the Cable rises past 1.7625, it might test 1.7711, the 200-day MA. THAT would be a good level to go Short.

Sell GBP 15K at 1.7690, SL 1.7760, TP 1.7420. This Order is placed just in case an unexpected upmove toward 1.77 occurs.

Aussie @ 0.7450/55....Support at 0.7431
R: 0.7463 / 0.7475-90 / 0.7522
S: 0.7443-31 / 0.7416 / 0.7389
The Aussie has been finding Support at 0.7443-31 since the morning. While it holds, there are some chances of a rise towards 0.7490 today and possibly 0.7520 on Monday. But, in case of a fall below 0.7431, look for 0.7416. The probabilities are not clear, though. No trades.

Happy Trading!


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