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Monday March 6, 2006 - 11:22:26 GMT
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JPY weakens again as the the Japan can't get its message straight on monetary policy. EUR/USD breaks higher in Asian Monday session - but that was probably due to EUR/JPY squeeze.

Busy week ahead with IAEA meeting on Iran today and possible UN Security Council moves later this week. US Trade Balance and employment data up later this week as well.

• US University of Michigan slightly lower than expected (86.7 vs. 87.5) and falling…
• US ISM Non-manufacturing at a strong 60.1 vs. 58.0 expected and 56.8 in January
• Koizumi said Monday that deflation lingers, wants BoJ to move carefully
• Iran still displaying resistance to the international community's scrutiny and criticism of its nuclear program and insists it will engage in large scale enrichment if referred to the UN security council….

Market Moves: JPY was blasted weaker still overnight in Asia on the Koizumi rhetoric. EUR/USD broke higher still, but was likely just a casualty of the big EUR/JPY squeeze higher.

The JPY was hit again by rhetoric overnight, as the message from the Japanese government is a sudden loud and clear: "careful with that easy money" to the Bank of Japan. It's been difficult to get a consistent message from Japan lately as previous signs indicated that the government was moving toward acceptance of an imminent end of the quantitative easing policy. Clearly - the timing of the strong message from Koizumi as rate markets elsewhere in the world are seeing new highs in yields across the curve is extraordinarily bearish for the JPY if Japanese rates don't soon start to ignore all of the rhetoric and head north as well. EUR/JPY has staged one of the most spectacular turn arounds ever with the move all the way back above 141.00 overnight after seeing 137.40 just days before. The USD/JPY view is determined by 116.50 and 117.50 at this point. If the Bank of Japan does announce an end to q.e. this week, the JPY could just as easily snap stronger again... strongly consider options to express your view.

It would be far easier to be bearish the USD right now if the pesky JPY wasn't distorting the view. In other words, if EUR/USD was at current levels above 1.2050 and USD/JPY was at 115.00, we would have an easier time making the call on the USD direction, but the impression we get of the market after Monday's Asian session is that the EUR/USD break had more to do with the market making signficant bets in a lower EUR/JPY and then getting stopped out on a squeeze after Koizumi's rhetoric - and the squeeze rubbed off a bit on EUR/USD as well. So we'll need to see EUR/USD closing above 1.2030 today and following through higher further out (and see USD/JPY pushing back below 116.50) to have a "comfortable" weak USD view. In the meantime we'll stay on our toes and take things one step at a time.

A fairly important week this week with the US Trade Balance number on Thursday and employment data on Friday. Both of those numbers triggered big USD buying sprees last month. Also - this week will see a further development on the Iran situation as the IAEA is set to meet today, with Mohamed El-Baradei expected to deliver a speech before the meeting at 0930 GMT. This meeting will announce whether Iran has moved toward compliance since the last meeting a month ago (the IAEA is certain to judge that they haven't, considering the level if Iranian belligerence and restarting of uranium enrichment.) Then, the UN Security Council will decide what the international community's response to Iran will be later this week One article claimed that he US might present documents stolen by the CIA that allegedly show specific atomic weapons plans. At present, only the energy markets seem to be pricing in any level of worry - and it's a bit surprising to see the world so complacent on this issue - so events bear close watching.

Elsewhere - CAD is likely headed for a test of its recent strength this week with the Ivey PMI today, BOC tomorrow, and employment data Friday.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Risk warning
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AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
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A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
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