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Monday March 6, 2006 - 12:15:16 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 06-Mar-2006...1200 GMT

Euro @ 1.2033/6....False rise above 200-SMA?
R: 1.2056 / 1.2095 / 1.2120-35
S: 1.2022 / 1.1999-90 / 1.1979
The Euro seems to have staged a "false rise" to 1.2095, above its 200-SMA (Daily) at 1.2060. Its come off since the morning. A fall below 1.2030 now could see it come down to 1.2000.

The overall view is that the Euro could trade indecisively between 1.2280-1625 through March.

Our EUR 20K Long at 1.2065 has just been stopped out.

$-Yen @ 117.14/8....Better to buy dip
R: 117.27 / 117.51 / 117.74
S: 117.09 / 116.97-88 / 116.64
Currently trading above 117.09, the statistically projected Max High for today. Implication is that further strength is possible IF the market closes above 117.09 today. In that case we could see 118 being tested. Before that, however, there is an important/ crucial Resistance at 117.51 which needs to be broken. ALSO, the 200-SMA on the 4-hour chart also happens to come in right here, at 117.25. Thus, unless the Resistance at 117.51 is not actually broken, it is difficult to go Long. Better to buy dips.

Buy $25K at 116.97, SL 116.70, TP 117.91

Euro-Yen @ 140.98/141.03....Buy Dip or a Rally
R: 141.40 / 141.74
S: 140.70-57 / 140.30-21
Te Cross would post further gains during the week but not necessarily today. Currently it is trading near the statically projected Max High for the day (141.07), after having crossed it once earlier in the day. Good Support comes in at 140.70-57. On the other hand a Minor Resistance is present at 141.40, above which the Resistance at 141.74 comes which is the high for 21-Feb-06. We expect the Cross to remain within 140.70 and 141.40 during the day. We would also buy on a dip or a rally.

Buy EUR 20K at 141.55 (down from 141.60), SL 141.30, TP 142.10
Buy EUR 20K at 140.69, SL 140.20 (up from 140.15), TP 142.10

$-Swiss @ 1.2969/74...200-SMA Support at 1.2859
R: 1.2993 / 1.3026-37-44
S: 1.2935 / 1.2900 / 1.2859
The Trend Support on the 3-day Close chart held well and Dollar-Swiss has bounced back up. Support at 1.2900 and then the big one at 1.2859, the 200-SMA on the Daily. At the same time, there is Resistance at 1.2993 for today. While the Resistance holds, there are chances of a dip towards 1.2949, or even 1.2920.

We'd like to wait and see whether the market rises past 1.2993 OR starts moving up again after first dipping towards 1.2949-20. In either case we'd want to buy. Else, if the market falls below 1.2900, we might want to try and sell (for a possible break of the 200-SMA) with a suitably tight SL. For now, we have to wait and watch.

Cable @ 1.7555/60....Back down towards 1.7460?
R: 1.7582 / 1.7625 / 1.7711
S: 1.7528 / 1.7506 / 1.7489-76 / 1.7456
The Resistance at 1.7625 (mentioned in the morning) has held and the Cable has fallen back to a Low near 1.7540. If the immediate Support at 1.7528 breaks, the Cable could come back down towards 1.7456 within the overall range of 1.74-76.

In retrospect, our mistake was to want to sell at 1.7690, when we were looking at a range of 1.74-76.

Aussie @ 0.7444/9....Range 0.7413-87
R: 0.7449-52 / 0.7474-87
S: 0.7437-31 / 0.7422-20 / 0.7408-02
On expected lines, there has been little movement in the Aussie during the day. It currently looks to have formed the range of 0.7413-0.7487 for itself, which could continue for some time more. The Supports on the downside come in at .7437-31 and then at 0.7422-20. The Resistances come at 0.7449-52 and then at 0.7474. There is little movement expected for now, hence no trades.

Happy Trading!


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