Wednesday March 8, 2006 - 15:13:11 GMT
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FOREX: Survey Analysis Courtesy Cumino
Analysis courtesy Cumino:
GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).
EUR USD 3 months: 1st day close 1.2018 (1.1970), av. responses 1.1905(1.1987), Adjusted boundaries 1.16-1.24(1.16-1.24).
GVI 48% (45%) COMPONENTS 16% 72% 12% (22% 67% 11%).
DRY INDEX: 28% (60%)
EUR neutral. Notable the divergence with Dry Index.
Neutrals (72%). LT and 6m mov.av. are at 48%.
USD JPY 3 months: 1st day close 117.52 (118.17), av. responses 117.65 (117.68), Adjusted boundaries 114-122 ( 114-122).
GVI: 44% (53%) COMPONENTS: 17% 79% 4% (9% 75% 16%)
DRY INDEX: 62% (37%)
USD bearish in relative terms. Notable divergence with Dry Index.
Neutral components at 79% well above LT average (61%) and 6m av. (62%).
OIL 3 months: 1st day close 62.41 (63.09), av. responses 62.30 (62.30), Adjusted boundaries 55-69 (56-70)
GVI: 49% (46%) COMPONENTS: 7% 87% 5%(19% 70% 11%),
DRY INDEX: 32% (42%)
Bullish in relative terms. Notable the divergence with Dry Index.
Neutrals are 87% the highest in the history.
All the 3 indexes have neutrals very high, and all show divergences with DRY. This is typical of ranging markets. Anyway volatility studies as well as position studies suggest that we could be in a final phase. In my opinion (apart emerging) AUD, Gold, CHF, SEK should show the early signs of a move.
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