Friday March 10, 2006 - 11:16:13 GMT
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Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
â€śI donâ€™t risk significant amounts of money in front of key reports, since that is gambling, not trading.â€ť
Paul Tudor Jones
FX Trading - Hodgepodge
Non-farm payroll today
â€śWe have made an adjustment to our forecast for February payroll employment. We now look for jobs to rise by 100,000 â€” versus our preliminary estimate of +50,000. The change reflects the slightly lower-than-expected result for initial unemployment claims and the lack of any noticeable elevation in continuing claims. However, note that even our revised estimate of +100,000 is well below the consensus expectation of +200,000. While we concur that the underlying trend in employment growth is probably somewhere in the neighbourhood of +200,000 at this point, we expect weather-related factors to temporarily depress payrolls in February,â€ť writes David Greenlaw of Morgan Stanley. [Our emphasis]
In other words, step right up and place your bets but donâ€™t expect the numbers that come up to have any predictive ability as to how the market will react. Because frankly gentlemen, playing in front of this number is much more than a crap shoot. Rationalization, which is a normal feature after the fact this time of the month, maybe be doled out with reckless abandon today.
Japanese yen yesterday
Yesterday was knee-jerk for the yen. We watched it back-up, after first sinking lower, on news the BOJ did what was expected. Yesterdayâ€™s price action fell in to the tried and true: It was sell the rumour and buy the news. After all, liquidity wonâ€™t be taken away immediately goes the rationalization after the fact. It will take months! No kidding? We thought the bank was going to flip its liquidity off-switch yesterday. We are just shocked I tell you, shocked!
Dollar testing resistance daily
The buck is testing its recent highs today. We would imagine there are bunch of buy stops and sell stops bunched around the major pairs for the dealers to hit at will today. After all, forex dealers have bills to pay and kids to put through college tooâ€”donâ€™t you know. Itâ€™s just a little bit easier for them; because when we use stop-losses--a necessary evil in these markets--we play with our cards face up. And you gotta love those ads by the retail forex housesâ€”â€śNo commission trading.â€ť No, they just take a piece of the middle on everything you doâ€”and take a chunk of meat on days when key reports are launchedâ€”today will likely be no exception.
US $ Index Daily:
Be careful out there and enjoy your weekend.
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