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Monday May 3, 2004 - 11:28:54 GMT
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British Cable - Cable/Dollar facing significant resistance at the 10-day SMA

British Cable - Cable/Dollar facing significant resistance at the 10-day SMA

GBP/USD facing significant resistance at the 10-day SMA
USD/CHF holding above daily trend line

Technical Outlook

On Friday, EUR/USD closed comfortably above the 200-day SMA as the pair continued its short-term rally. Bulls still need to regain 1.2080, high of 04/19, to alter the streak of lower highs we have seen over the past two months. On defense, stochastic is close to overbought and a pullback may be needed, Friday's low at 1.1920 must be sustained to keep the positive momentum flowing. USD/JPY has spent the past two sessions trading around the psychological level of 110, also the 200-day MA. The daily uptrend remains bullish and YTD high at 112.35 is within reach. As long as the pair can defend 109.50, a convergence of 04/29 low and the 10-day SMA, buyers will be in good shape. A pullback maybe needed to digest gains however with stochastic in overbought region. The rally in GBP/USD is stalling with the pair experiencing significant difficulty breaking 1.7810, a confluence of 04/29 high, 04/30 high and 38.2% fibo of Sep - Feb bull wave. Bulls need to penetrate this level as soon as possible as there are plenty of traders looking to short into this rally, looking for a retest of YTD low at 1.7580. Only a close above 1.7975, high of 04/28 would complete the double bottom and alter the primary downtrend. USD/CHF is at a pivot point after spending entire last week giving back gains from breakout. On Thursday and Friday bulls faced significant pressure and responded well. Stochastic now near oversold region and bargain hunters will defend the pair as long as it can protect at 1.2890, a convergence of the low of breakout candle on 04/20. If they can regain major psychological level of 1.3000, the 200-day EMA, a retest of the YTD high will shortly follow. Losing the anchor established in past two sessions on the other hand, would signal a change in primary trend.








EUR/CAD Daily


Comment from 04/01
On 03/11 EUR/CAD had a low at 6142 (slightly below our 6150/6200 area) before a rally to the 6520 high on 03/18, 378pts higher. Today, the outlook is bearish since we broke the 6200 base. Yesterday's move higher looks like a standard breakout retracement. As a result, bears will try to add into the loonie at 6220/6250 thanks to the 20 EMA (ADX>30), 100 SMA, breakout pt now R and 38.2% Fibo from the Nov - Feb bull wave. More conservative bears will try the 6480/6510 area in order to exploit the 50 SMA and 23.6% Fibo from the Nov - Feb bull wave. On the other side of the fence, bulls will enter at 5780/5820 to benefit from the 200 SMA and 61.8% Fibo from the Nov - Feb bull wave. Below, 5500/50 is to watch thanks a strong Fibo confluence (76.4% Fibo from the Nov - Feb bull wave & 38.2% Fibo from the Feb - Aug bear wave).

05/02
On 04/05 EUR/CAD had a low at 5731 (below our 5780/5820 zone) before a rally to the 04/19 high at 6242, 511pts higher. The market had a correction below to the 04/27 low at 5987, 255pts lower. The market then rallied to yesterday's high at 6518. The outlook is now quite neutral since we are back to the upper side of the range. Reversal players who are not already short will probably try some reversal plays at 6540/70 in order to exploit the High BB and a robust Fibo confluence (76.4% Fibo from the Sep - Mar bull wave and 61.8% Fibo from the Mar bear wave). If a sustained breakout above occurs 6700 will be the next major R. On the downside, bulls will have decent dip buying opportunities at 5930/60 and 5670/5700. The first area is the 200 SMA and 50% Fibo from the Sep - mar bull wave. The second is the Low BB and another robust Fibo confluence (38.2% Fibo from the Sep - Mar bull wave & 23.6% Fibo from the 00 - 03 bull wave).






 

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