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Wednesday July 7, 2004 - 10:58:32 GMT -

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DailyFX US Open Market Brief 07-07-04

Published By: Boris Schlossberg, Fundamental Analyst

No More Rate Hikes?

In his latest column, John Crudele the influential financial journalist of NY Post, points out that while Fed funds rates increased, the latest mortgage rates have actually declined. Why? Crudele argues that US economy is weaker than it appears to be. He notes that BLS arrived at its 112,000 new payroll estimate by, “adding 182,000 jobs that it assumes — but can't prove — are being created by newly formed small companies that can't be surveyed. Work out the numbers, “ he continues. “If growth was 112,000 jobs and the Labor Department assumed 182,000 were being created by these invisible new businesses then real jobs actually declined by 70,000. “

Whether Crudele is right about the specifics of NFP report is open to interpretation, but he may be correct about the broader point that US economy is weakening. Today’s UBS research note confirms that, “our U.S. data index has moved into negative territory for the first time since March as recent data has failed to keep pace with elevated market expectations.” If the slower US growth scenario unfolds in the 2nd half of the year, the Fed will be reluctant to aggravate the situation by raising rates further. In his monthly letter to investors, Bill Gross the portfolio manager of the world’s largest bond fund, writes that even a small rise in rates in a highly debt-leveraged economy such as US could have devastating repercussions. More interestingly he points out that fully 40% of all US corporate profits presently come from the financial sector – a sector that would be damaged the most by specter of rising rates. For traders this scenario only confirms the attractiveness of carry trades. In the last 24 hours the AUD, NZD and GBP are appreciably higher against the greenback. For now the market seems to confirm this thesis. However, whether this positioning is in fact the beginning of a new trend or simply summer jockeying in what ultimately is a range-bound market remains to be seen.

Key Overnight Developments

- RBA leaves rates unchanged at 5.25% citing lowest inflation in 4 years
- Nikkei slumps for 3rd day in a row off weaker US markets, rising oil and uncertain LDP election status
- DEM factory orders up 1.6% vs. 0% expected on strong demand from Asia

FX Spot Overnight

- EUR takes out 1.2350 as Frankfurt and London dealers trigger stops and squeeze shorts
- JPY comes off the 109 handle on reports that Cabinet will re-affirm positive eco outlook
- GBP spikes through 85 handle on underlying eco strength and dealer probes of major resistance
- CHF drops the 23 handle on general USD weakness

Upcoming Events
12:30 GMT - (8:30 AM EST) CAD Building Permits (m/m) (May)
Expected at –1.0%, Previous 6.3%

14:00 GMT - (10:00 AM EST) CAD Ivey PMI (June)
Expected at 62.0, Previous 64.7

16:00 GMT - (12:00 PM EST) USD Fed's Ferguson Speaks to NY Association for Business Economics

Economic Data Release Recap

Currency GMT Release Actual EST Previous Comment
AUD 23:30 RBA Cash Target (July) 5.25% 5.25% 5.25% Slowdown in housing and inflation at 4 year lows keep lid on rates.
DEM 10:00 Factory Orders (m/m) (May) 1.6% 0% 1.9% Export demand from Asia and East Europe leads to unexpected rise


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Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
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