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Wednesday July 7, 2004 - 12:01:23 GMT -

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DailyFX Technical Report 07-07-2004

DailyFX Technical Report 07-07-2004

Stop loss landslide inspires broad based dollar weakness
Stop loss landslide inspires broad based dollar weakness
Yen finds support at 108.45/60

Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD finally traded through the 50% retracement of 1.2930-1.1765 (1.2345) early in London trading. The manic price action observed over the past 24 hours is expected to remain unrelenting as the pair seeks phyllotaxis. The pair has decided to trade back into the regression trend channel beginning 4/23, as it was quite undecided throughout the month of June. The level also coincides with the centerline of the larger regression trend that extends all the way back to mid '00. Daily oscillators have begun to drift higher with the stochastic (88.4) leading the charge. Intraday oscillators offer near perfect self-affinity to daily charts with the MACD histogram (0.002) slopping up and the RSI (61.45) nearing overbought.

As noted yesterday, USD/JPY came under slight selling pressure as the pair lofted into the 50% retracement of 103.45-115.00 (109.20). The intraday 240-minute has moved briskly to oversold on the move leaving us to believe the selling could be overdone. Additionally, the MACD continues to gather steam to the upside on the daily and weekly charts. The 61.8% retracement of 103.45-115.00 (107.85) has been eyed as local support and could be the tipping point for longs.

A monumental drive for the key 1.8500 level left GBP/USD longs in the cat-bird seat late in London trading today. The move has pushed the pair well above the trendline connecting recent highs as noted yesterday and has brought on what looks like a new trend on the daily chart. A full consensus shift is still unconfirmed however, as significant trading above the 61.8 % retracement of 1.7490-19125 (1.8500) is necessary to reestablish the trend created in June. Moves above the key level (1.8500) have been capped quickly thus far but selling has also been muted.

The USD/CHF presses closer still to multi-year lows (1.2140) made in January. The pair continues to trade well below the 100 and 200-day MA's at local support levels created Sunday to present. The pair hasn't traded below the lower wick of the hammer (1.2280) formation located at the bottom of last week's crater and a breakdown of this level would be significant. Daily pivots (S2 1.2284) also indicate a pivotal echelon/solid support at this level.


Comment from 06/14
On 05/25 USD/CHF had a low at 2652 before a quick bounce to the 2741 on 05/27 - 89pts higher. The pair then collapsed below the 2700 level. The outlook is now clearly bearish and the past days' retracement seems to be a typical breakout/retracement pattern. Bears will in fact use the 2650/2700 area to exploit the breakout pt now R, 100 SMA and a strong Fibo confluence (50% Fibo from the Jan - May bear wave & 38.2% Fibo from the Dec - Jan bear wave). Higher another clear entry for the bears will be 3150/3200 thanks to the swing high and another solid Fibo confluence (50% Fibo from the Aug - Jan bear wave & 38.2% Fibo from the Dec - Jan bear wave). Bulls do not have the upper hand but 2220/2270 will attract the reversal crowd. The Low BB, MT trend S and yearly lows are in the zone.

On 06/16 USD/CHF had a high at 2704 (slightly above our 2650/2700 area) and then fell to the 2267 low on 07/05 - 437pts lower. It is important to note that the 2650/2700 was validated a second time on 06/29 (high at 2679). The outlook is clearly bearish once again and aggressive sellers will probably consider 2380/2400 in order to exploit the nearby 10 SMA, 20 EMA and 76.4% Fibo from the Jan - May bull wave. More conservative bears are probably already short and will only consider the swiss on pullbacks to 2700/50 thanks to the 100 & 200 SMA, High BB and 50% Fibo from the Jan - May bear wave. Bulls will stay on the sidelines but reversal players will watch 2200/50 closely thanks to the Low BB and 138.2% Fibo from the Mar - May bull. A sustained breakout below would leave us with little S and 1.1800 would be ahead.


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