User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday July 8, 2004 - 07:22:55 GMT
Saxo Bank - www.global-view.com/saxo_bank/

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Trading Strategies - July 8th 2004

GBP/USD pulls back to 1.8500 -1.8480, should resume the uptrend later in the day; USD/CHF set to break 1.2260 support

Bank of England may leave its benchmark rate unchanged today, awaiting evidence that four increases since November are reining in consumer borrowing and house prices. New increase may come in August.






DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY: July 8 - EUROPE


- The Bank of England may leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged today, awaiting evidence that four increases since November are reining in consumer borrowing and house prices. The next increase in the securities-repurchase rate, currently at 4.5 percent, won't come until August, according to most economists surveyed. There are two forecast of a quarter-point increase when the bank announces its decision at noon in London.


- Australia's economy unexpectedly shed jobs for a second month in June as part-time employment fell, supporting the central bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The Australian dollar fell and bonds rose. Employment fell 3,800 last month following a decline of 43,000 in May, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney. The median forecast in a survey of economists was for 25,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 5.6 percent from a 23- year low of 5.5 percent. The Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday left its benchmark interest rate at 5.25 percent for a seventh month as economic growth slowed, house prices declined and inflation fell to a four-year low.


- Crude oil futures rose in New York on concern that supplies from Russia, the world's second-largest exporter, may fall if the country's tax dispute with its biggest oil producer isn't resolved quickly. Crude oil for August delivery rose as much as 27 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $39.35 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $39.29 at 12:28 p.m. Sydney time.


- Gold futures in New York were little changed after posting their biggest gain in 13 months yesterday as economists scaled back estimates of U.S. economic growth and the pace of Federal Reserve interest-rate increase. The estimates cut, following a smaller-than-expected employment gain last month and rising energy costs, sent the dollar to a near three-month low against the euro. Gold rose 2.5 percent yesterday to close at $402.70 an ounce as a falling U.S. currency makes the dollar-priced metal cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Gold for August delivery fell 90 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $401.80 an ounce in after-hours trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:03 a.m. Sydney time.


- A survey from the U.S. National Association of Business Economists reports that a net 22% of employers increased headcount in Q2. This is up from 7% last year, and is in the top 10% of historical responses. 41% of respondents plan to increase further employment over the next six months, up from 34% last quarter. Such readings have historically been consistent with very upbeat labor market trends. Plans for capital spending also remain robust. Inevitably, cost pressures were a problem in the second quarter: a net 56% of businesses reported higher material costs. Moreover, a net 52% expect prices to rise further in Q3; this seems elevated in light of the recent declines in commodity prices. There was also evidence of pass-through from higher materials costs to final goods prices: a net 20% of respondents reported higher product prices, still an elevated reading although down from Q1ís 25%. The outlook, according to this survey, is not comforting: 35% of respondents expect to increase product prices in Q3, while only 4% anticipate price declines.





FX Market Summary


The dollar traded near a three-month low against the euro in Asia today as economists scaled back estimates for U.S. economic growth and the pace of Federal Reserve interest-rate increases. A smaller-than-expected employment gain last month prompted some analysts to cut their forecasts for 2004 growth, bringing the median prediction down to 4.1 percent from 4.5 percent before the report. Confidence in the economy among chief executives in the U.S. slipped from the highest in 20 years in the second quarter, a report yesterday showed.

Against the euro, the dollar was trading at $1.2359 in Tokyo today, from $1.2373 late yesterday. It was also at 108.70 yen from 108.65 yen. The U.S. currency yesterday traded as low as $1.2388, its weakest since April 1, and had its biggest drop versus the yen in two weeks.

The Australian dollar fell to 72.10 U.S. cents at noon in Sydney today, from 72.26 cents after Australia's economy unexpectedly shed jobs for a second month in June, as part-time employment fell, supporting the central bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Employment fell 3,800 last month following a decline of 43,000 in May, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney. The median forecast was for 25,000 new jobs.

The U.S. dollar was the big mover on Wednesday, trading sharply lower against the major currencies as the recent slate of disappointing U.S. economic data caused some traders to reassess the outlook for an aggressive tightening cycle from the Fed. The greenback plunged 0.9% against the Japanese yen, lost 0.6% vs. the euro, and slipped 0.4% against the Canadian dollar. The gains by both the Canadian dollar and euro today pushed those currencies to more than three-month highs against the U.S. dollar.

Canada's dollar rose to a three-month high versus the U.S. dollar Wednesday as a report showed further evidence of economic expansion, boosting speculation the Bank of Canada will lift its key interest rate in September. Higher interest rates may boost demand for the currency from international investors. The Ivey School of Business purchasing managers index advanced to 66 in June from 64.7 in the prior month, the highest in a year. It was the 11th straight month the index has been above 50, which signals a net expansion. At 5 p.m. in Toronto, the Canadian dollar jumped 0.6 percent to 75.74 U.S cents, the highest closing since April 7. U.S.funds currently trade at 1.3220.





Forex Technicals:


EUR/USD - the currency has been to as high as 1.2390 but pulled back slightly as the markets await further validation of the positive short-term and medium-term views. There are potential bullish developments later in the day -- the BoE's MPC is set to announce their decision today. However, odds of a another 25 basis point hike is very slim, but we could be in for a surprise. The currency has broken through the 1.2350 top, and should push through towards 1.2500 in the next few days -- if given a timely nudge soon. We would like to see 1.2500 taken out before venturing further positive comments, but looks like momentum is getting set for follow-through to 1.2900 further out.

GBP/USD - the currency has been to as high as 1.8580 ahead of the MPC announcement -- this despite the slim chances of a rate hike of any sort. Support may come at 1.8500. The uptrend should accelerate further from there. Positive fundamental developments likely to push the currency forward even further in the days to come. The rally through 1.8500 has reinstated the 1.9100 targets.

USD/JPY - no change in view -- the currency pair may yet find support at 108.00 area. Nonetheless, we may see further ascent towards 112.00 later in the week. This is a significant detour in the downtrend, but a rally in a bear market nonetheless. The downtrend should reassert thereafter and have another go at 107.00 trough. The next downside target is 105.70 then 103.50.

USD/CHF - the currency has been to 1.2260 but was stymied by lack of follow-through in the major Europeans. The currency pair should resume the downtrend soon, and itself follows through lower. We still expect to see further declines to 1.2150 base and then through 1.2000 much further out.

USD/CAD -- the currency pair consolidates , but a break of 1.3200 is due soon, as the downtrend resumes in earnest. The next downside target may still be the area of 1.3000.

AUD/USD - the uptrend has been to as high as .7245, but may correct back to .7175 later in the day. However, the rally should resume further as focus switches to .7500 objectives.

NZD/USD - the currency has been to .6575, but may dip back to .6520 area later in the day. The currency should accelerate higher thereafter towards the .6800 focus point further out.

EUR/JPY - no change in view -- the short-term scenario makes a substantial detour to the upside -- the current consolidation notwithstanding. The cross might rise to as high as 138.00 before significant resistance appears. The longer-term scenario takes on a large sideways consolidation requring a sell-off from 138.00 potential resistance.

EUR/CHF - the cross may have found new support at 1.5175,which should propel the cross higher -- we expect a rally to at least 1.5350. The cross is forming a broad bottom -- for the first time in many weeks, the cross shows signs of a longer-lasting reversal. Any rally above 1.5430 suggests that the long bear market is over.

EUR/GBP - no change in view -- the cross may yet fall to .6650/40 from here. But the cross should eventually resume the uptrend, which has .6820 as next upside focus.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105