User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday March 29, 2006 - 11:28:11 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• FOMC statement interpreted hawkishly but the message is not that different from recent signals.
• Yesterday’s strong Eurozone data should provide EUR with a good foundation ahead of next week’s ECB meeting. EUR-USD upside favoured.
• Fed rate hike provides further test for peripheral currencies.

Market Outlook

The FOMC statement was interpreted hawkishly by the market due to the affirmation that further policy firming may be needed as well as the observations about a) the existence of inflation risks due to a combination of increasing resource utilisation and high energy prices and b) Q4 growth weakness being temporary. However, none of this is dramatically different from the signals that have been advanced by most Fed officials. Furthermore, the statement also included an expectation that growth ‘appears likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace’, supporting the notion that rates are close to peaking. This comment dovetails nicely with the idea that future policy is data dependent. If the data supports a moderation in activity then there is less concern about potential inflation risk and less need to raise rates. If the data strengthens then rates will continue rising. At this juncture we would still expect rates to pause at 5%, although the risks remain to the upside.

US market rates have been pushed up around 8-10bp along the 3-12mth portion of the curve, reflecting the notion that a 5% funds rate has now been all but confirmed and the shifting of risk to the possibility of a further move to 5.25%.

Whether this is enough to generate a sustained USD rally against the EUR is questionable given yesterday’s strong Eurozone data, which suggests growing rate hike risk at the ECB. As long as 1.1950 holds (and we expect that it will) EURUSD upside is favoured ahead of next week’s ECB meeting. The key risk to such a development would be further generalised USD strength against the peripheral currencies, boosting the USD against the majors.

It could be a testing 24 hours or so for these types of currencies as the market digests this latest development, which raises the threat of a further squeeze on global liquidity. Both the MXN and the BRL responded negatively to the FOMC announcement, while the NZD and AUD were also weaker initially overnight. Key supports are now coming up on AUD and NZD – 0.7000 on AUD and 0.5900-0.6000 on NZD. These need to hold (favoured) to suggest the avoidance of further sharp losses in the near-term. 1.1775-1.1800 is equally significant on USD-CAD and this should also hold.

GBP has shown some weakness against the EUR this morning, helped by talk of early buying on EUR-GBP and data news flow that has been generally negative – big current account deficit, slightly softer mortgage approvals and ongoing weakness in CBI retail sales offsetting stronger than expected consumer credit. Overall, UK rate expectations remain fairly even, although with ECB rate expectations rising this will leave GBP vulnerable against the EUR.

Day Ahead
US – weekly mortgage applications for house purchases will be watched to see whether last week’s sharp decline was a one-off or the start of something more serious. Mortgage applications fell sharply at the beginning of the year but had been steady over the past month or so.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

NO Norges Bank’s Bergo on policy 07.00
US Fed’s Lacker speaks 09.00
JP Ind prod (Feb, prel) m/m 18.50 +0.1%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US FOMC meeting outcome 4.75% 4.75%
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Mar 26) -7 -8 last
JP Retail sales (Feb) y/y +1.0% +0.7%
DE Consumer confidence (Apr) 5.1 4.9
NO Retail sales (Feb) m/m -1.8% -0.9%
GB Consumer credit (Feb) +£1.4bn +£1.2bn
GB Mortgage approvals (Feb, sa) 115k 120k
GB GDP (Q4, final est) q/q +0.6% +0.6%
GB Current account (Q4) -£11.0bn -£6.8bn
ZA CPI (Feb) y/y +3.9% +4.1%
ZA CPIX (Feb) y/y +4.5% +4.6%
CH KOF indicator (Mar) 1.30 1.35
GB CBI retail trades survey (Mar) -16 -18 last
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105