Wednesday March 29, 2006 - 11:46:44 GMT
Share This Story
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
Questions abound...good answers scarce
â€śI want the whole of Europe to have one currency; it will make trading much easier.â€ť
FX Trading â€“ Beware: Stream of consciousness today
Commodities have been climbing despite the Fedâ€™s actions and words, and more evidence the ECB may be in the game for a while. Oh we of little liquidity faith were expecting some froth to roll out of those markets. Wrong!
Copper is the poster child of the commodities boom. When we gander at the copper chart, we ask ourselves: Did someone slip in the shuttle launch trajectory instead? Holy nose-bleed Batman!
â€˘ Whatâ€™s going on here?
â€˘ Does the Fed matter?
â€˘ Is Chinaâ€™s insatiable demand truly insatiable?
â€˘ Is credit too readily available from a whole host of intermediaries and derivative instruments outside central banksâ€™ control?
â€˘ Are those huge pools of Asian â€śsavingsâ€ť the driver of all things commodities?
â€˘ Since the Fed mentioned commodities in its statement yesterday, can we expect more than one more hike down the pike?
â€˘ Is the Fed near the end and ECB near the beginning?
â€˘ Will it all come back to the strength of the economy?
â€˘ Can the Bank of Japan afford to wait much longer?
â€˘ Is China going to move on the yuan?
â€˘ Why hasnâ€™t gold made a new high, while silver and copper have?
â€˘ Are the comdols â€śwayâ€ť oversold given the continued strength in commodities?
â€˘ Will the air continue to flow from the formal high-yieldersâ€™ into the new high yielderâ€”the US$?
Ahâ€¦so many questions and so little time to formulate them. Answers: Oh yeah! Once we attain that elusive gift of hindsight, we will be happy to share them.
We think if you are playing in these markets your question to answer ratio should be about 100:1. At this stage, our ratio is much higher. But the fact is, like it or not, we will never be able to answer most of our questions with any warm feeling of certainty. But we must at least boil it down to a simple yes or no decision: Do we make a trade or not? We donâ€™t have to play if we donâ€™t want to. That is our advantage over the dealers that take their chunk of flesh on the spread each and every day. Letâ€™s try to use our positional advantage wisely.
Black Swan Capital Subscribe to the Black Swan Letter
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."