User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday April 3, 2006 - 20:52:53 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

FXCM - Dollar Sells Off as Weak Data Puts to Question Bernanke’s Optimism

DailyFX Fundamentals 04-03-06

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Dollar Sells Off as Weak Data Puts to Question Bernanke’s Optimism
• ECB to Leave Rates Unchanged Thursday Despite Stronger Data
• Diverging Economic Activity in UK vs. Europe Pushes EUR/GBP to 8 Month Highs

US Dollar

On the first day of trading in the month of April, we have seen quite a bit of volatility in the currency market. The dollar had a very mixed day against the majors as it lost strength versus the Euro, British pound and Japanese Yen, but gained strength against the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD and CAD). The sell off against the majors took off after the much weaker than expected Institute of Supply Management report. The manufacturing sector is showing signs of waning strength with the ISM index falling from 56.7 to 55.2 last month. Although this still suggests that the sector is expanding, traders were really hoping for activity to accelerate and were forecasting for the ISM index to rise to 57.7. Ahead of this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, the dip in the employment index was also worrisome. After last Tuesday’s hawkish FOMC statement, the market was really looking for the stronger data to back up Bernanke’s view that the slowdown in the fourth quarter was only “temporary.” However, with manufacturing activity weakening and the housing market delivering yet another piece of bad news, traders began to doubt the new Fed Chairman’s optimism. According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales fell 0.8 percent in February. This follows the 10.5 percent drop in new home sales reported last week. Although construction spending ticked higher, it remains questionable how much longer this can be sustained with interest rates driving mortgage rates higher. Not all news was bad news today however. The prices paid component of the ISM report jumped to 66.5 from 60.9 indicating that inflation is still prevalent, giving the Fed a good reason to continue increasing interest rates. However, even so the turn in the dollar is significant and we expect more weakness than strength in the days to come. Meanwhile the commodity currencies are seeing a strong liquidation. The New Zealand dollar continues to be hit with the unwinding of long term carry trades. The Australian dollar has sold off in sympathy.

Euro

The Euro gained strength today primarily on the back of dollar weakness, but the rise in the region’s manufacturing sector purchasing manager’s index also instilled a bit of confidence in the Euro itself. Economic growth continues to improve in the region with German, French and Italian manufacturing activity all accelerating last month. In fact, activity in Germany jumped from 55.8 to 58.1, a 5.5 year high. Despite strikes in France, activity increased from 52.2 to 54.6 while Italy, the usual laggard, also saw its manufacturing index rise from 55.1 to 55.5. We are expecting a lot of data from the Eurozone this week, most of which are expected to highlight improving economic activity. Even so, the market is expecting the European Central Bank to leave interest rates unchanged this Thursday. Although ECB officials have been extremely hawkish and most analysts are calling for three to four more rate hikes this year, the actual bouts of tightening are predicted to come in a more orderly manner – once every quarter for the next three quarters. The reason for the more tempered rise comes off of the ECB’s fear of causing a sharp rally in the Euro by being too aggressive. The central bank knows that much of the region’s recovery has come from the weakness in their currency and they will take active measures to prevent excessive strength. However even if the central bank leaves interest rates unchanged, that will not prevent them from making more hawkish comments which could still keep the Euro lifted. Meanwhile Switzerland also reported strong PMI numbers with its own manufacturing index rising from 60 to 65.2. The market had anticipated a dip, but the Swiss economy continues to outperform expectations.

British Pound

Like the Euro, the British pound was driven higher by dollar weakness, but unlike the Euro, the pound did not benefit from stronger economic data. In fact, unlike its major counterparts in the rest of Europe, manufacturing activity in the UK grew at a slower pace last month. On a day when surprises are plentiful, the contraction in the manufacturing sector came as a shock to many. The diverging economic performance in Europe and the UK has pushed EUR/GBP to the highest level since July 2005. The Bank of England is scheduled to meet and decide on interest rates this week. Economic data having been quite mixed over the past few weeks with the housing sector stabilization and inflation still consistent with price stability, the central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.50 percent once again. In fact, as long as data is mixed, the BoE will probably continue to leave monetary policy unchanged.

Japanese Yen

A weaker Tankan report had prompted a sell off in the Japanese Yen throughout the Asian trading session. The currency recovered quite impressively however once Europe joined the markets. The index measuring the sentiment of large manufacturers dipped to 20 from 21 while the index for non-manufacturers remained unchanged at 18 in the first quarter. Despite the decline, manufacturing activity still remained solid in the first quarter. Taking a look at the price action in the NZD, we see that carry trade liquidation remains a predominant theme with traders buying back their short yen positions.

Check out Kathy Lien's book, Day Trading the Currency Market

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0471717533/kathylien-20?creative=327641&camp=14573&adid=032XX209KNAB1A2V2NQJ&link_code=as1

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105