Wednesday April 5, 2006 - 14:57:36 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
FOREX: GVI monthly Forex Survey Results
In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar turned negative against the euro. The three month ahead mean forecast for EURUSD was 1.2286 from 1.1905 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (April 3 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.2144.
The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) turned negative the EUR/USD to 67 from 48 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast turned lower to 116.38 from 117.65 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 117.70. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index remained neutral. It was 46 after 47.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to close at $67.86 in three months time from the current spot vs. the previous $61.87 estimate.
In a special question, participants were asked where they felt the European Central Bank refi rate target would peak this year, 28% said 3.0% or below, 52% said 3.25% and 19% saw 3.50% or higher.
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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