User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday April 6, 2006 - 11:08:29 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD looking strong and further gains look likely in the weeks ahead.
• But some consolidation may be seen ahead of tomorrow’s US employment report if Trichet fails to fuel the policy fire any further today.
• The ECB is probably satisfied for now with the way market expectations have developed.
• Australian labour market data not as strong as it looks, but AUD still looks fairly good.
• UK MPC meeting should be a non-event.

Market Outlook

The EUR remains strong and this is weighing on the USD in general, with EUR-USD having intermittently traded above the January high of 1.2322. If it can hold on to such developments it will focus market attention on a possible test of the key area at 1.2600-1.2730, although it is not abundantly clear that Trichet will offer any more hawkishness today than is known already (see below for full preview of ECB meeting). On this basis there could be some consolidation seen before a further major push higher is seen (also note that the US employment report is still to come tomorrow) but there is a clear risk of such strength over the next week or so.

Recent EUR-USD moves are not just about the attributes of the EUR, but the possible failings of the USD. The market has for most of this year been mindful of the likelihood that at some point US rate arguments will lose their lustre and negative balance of payments arguments will take over. Indeed, such sentiment drove the move to 1.2322 back in January. This proved to be something of a false start, with US rate expectations having risen since then, but the sense that the US rate story is drawing to a close has never been far from the surface. This makes the market more prone to jump into alternatives and the ECB rate story is proving to be such an attraction.

As it currently stands, the US rate story may yet run for longer than the market currently believes and at some point there may also be some pullback or brake on the development of ECB rate hike expectations. However, for now the arguments look pretty solid and such momentum is likely to leave EUR-USD in the ascendancy for the next few weeks at least. Most probably this will be until the May 4 ECB meeting, which is also when the May 10 FOMC will come into sight. How the market views that FOMC event will be driven by the tone of the US data between now and then.

Another round of decent data out of Australia adds further to arguments about a possible rate hike over the next few months. A number of data releases appear to have pulled out of the flat patch that has been in place since the middle of last year and rate expectations are starting to follow suit. However, last night’s labour market data is not without qualification, as the 27k rise in total employment was more than accounted for by a very strong 39.5k rise in part-time employment – full-time employment actually fell 12.4k. However, the fall in the unemployment rate to 5% (a joint record low with the Jun-Aug period last year) should help consumer confidence. Such lopsided outcomes on the full and part-time employment categories are not uncommon, but a possible explanation is the temporary jobs created by the March Commonwealth Games in Melbourne. However, state data shows that employment gains were outside the state of Victoria, so it would appear that job creation related to the Games was in prior months. This would be consistent with the performance of part-time employment in the run-up to the Sydney Olympics in 2000.

Medium-term prospects for the AUD still look reasonably good (with gold having risen further) and what is clear after recent developments is that the domestic data will be much more of an argument in how the AUD now performs. However, after recent strength there is likely to be some consolidation before the market takes a closer look at 0.7385-0.7410. Below 0.7260 would suggest a pullback to 0.7215-20. Housing finance data is due tonight.

Day Ahead
Eurozone – the ECB meeting and press conference is the main feature but after the messages sent in recent weeks and the lack of effort on the part of ECB officials to counter the development of higher interest rate expectations, their job appears to have been done for now. All Trichet needs to do is to reiterate that the ECB will be absolutely determined to remain extremely vigilant about pre-empting any inflation risk and that recent data developments e.g. very strong private sector lending, only increase the need for such vigilance. This will confirm what the market has now adjusted to i.e. a 25bp May rate hike, plus the impression that another hike will follow in July or even June. Indeed, it will also beg the question as to why they are not raising rates today, which is still a risk perhaps despite the Market News story from earlier this week implying that the move would not be until May.

For the time being Trichet will probably not want to be too aggressive as market rate expectations have already moved satisfactorily as far as the ECB is concerned. There is probably little upside to stoking the fire even further at this stage. For example, they probably have little interest in sparking any additional rally in EUR-USD.

UK –the MPC meeting is likely to leave rates unchanged and there will be no statement, so it should be a non-event. The minutes will be released on April 19. However, the damage has been done as far as GBP is concerned, with EUR-GBP closing above 0.7000 yesterday. This should ensure more upside testing in the short-term and while there could be some consolidation ahead of the Dec 04 and Jan 05 highs of 0.7108 and 0.7040 respectively, it is difficult to see the news flow switching back in favour of GBP over the next couple of months. In this regard, general upside risk will remain in place. If and when 0.7108 does break it would expose the 2003 highs at 0.7250 and 0.7350.

US – weekly jobless claims is the only data feature in the USand it appears to have stabilised a little after recent volatility. The USD could be mildly sensitive to further swings in the data today but as it appears just as Trichet is about to deliver his opening address at the ECB press conference, the market will most likely be focused on bigger things.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

GB MPC rate announcement 07.00 4.5%
EU ECB meeting outcome 07.45, press conf 08.30 2.5%
CA Building permits (Feb) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
US Initial claims (w/e Apr 2) 08.30 305k
US Continuing claims (w/e Mar 25) 08.30 2483k last
NO Norges Bank’s Gjedrem speaks 09.00
CA PMI (Mar, nsa) 10.00 62.0
AU Housing finance (Feb) m/m 19.30 +0.5%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
GB NIESR GDP (3mths to Mar) q/q +0.6% +0.7% last
AU Employment (Mar) +27k +10k
AU Unemployment rate (Mar) 5.0% 5.2%
GB HBOS house prices (Mar) m/m +0.9% +1.4%
NO Unemployment rate (Mar, nsa) 2.9% 2.8%
NO Unemployment rate (Jan, sa) 3.9% 4.1%
*Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105