User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday April 10, 2006 - 21:06:46 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Dollar - Analysts Push Up Rate Hike Expectations

DailyFX Fundamentals 04-10-06

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

• Dollar - Analysts Push Up Rate Hike Expectations
• Politics Dominate Eurozone - French Government Drops Youth Labor Reform Bill, Italian Elections at a Standstill
• Yen - All Eyes on Fukui Press Conference

US Dollar

Trading has been extremely quiet today with most major currency pairs ending the day unchanged against the dollar. There was little for the market to work off of with no economic data released and both Federal Reserve Presidents Olsen and Bies failing to deliver any market moving comments. For the most part, the dollar is still in limbo as the market tries to figure out how far the Fed will go. Last Friday’s comments from Federal Reserve President Poole has imprinted in the heads of traders that 5.25 percent rates is quite feasible. Some banks are now even calling for 5.5 percent or 6 percent rates. If you tack on the fact that the European Central Bank threw cold water on speculation for a May rate hike and it is no wonder that the dollar is still holding onto most of its strength. Everything centers on retail sales and the trade balance in this shortened trading week (Good Friday brings forth early closes on Friday). After the sharp drop in retail sales in February, the market is looking for spending to have rebounded last month. If retail sales disappoints, we expect analysts to start screaming about the impact of the contraction in the housing market on spending. Even if sales do increase, we need to be careful and make sure that sales are not increasing just because receipts at gas stations are higher. With gas prices creeping to $3.00 gallon in some locales, we see this as more a detriment to future retail sales than a benefit. However before we even focus on retail sales, we first have to clear the air on trade. The market is forecasting a $67.9 billion deficit in the month of February, which represents a contraction of $0.6 billion, but even so there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the report with Morgan Stanley calling for a wider deficit and Barclays calling for a narrower one. Uncertainty to us simply means one thing and that is volatility. Hopefully we will get to see more action rather than consolidation on the back of these reports.


Last week the European Central Bank confirmed to the market that they plan on delivering nothing more one rate hike a quarter. This more conservative timetable has tipped the Euro over and despite a mild recovery today, the single currency still remains under pressure. Good news on the political front should ease some of the worry that the protests in France could spill over into something bigger. French Prime Minster Dominique de Villepin announced today that it plans to drop the controversial labour reform law, which should put an end to latest round of protests in France. Yet, politics is not completely out of the way with Italian elections too close to call. Berlusconi and Prodi have both received a close number of votes which means that neither received a large majority. If this is true, Italians may be forced to go back to the polls once again and it is probably going to be a while until we get clearer results on who will become the new Prime Minister. In the meantime, this will allow the market to turn its full focus onto tomorrow’s ZEW report. After coming in much weaker than expected last month, the market is betting on a nice rebound this month. Business sentiment has retained its strength and given signs that the ECB is planning on slowing down its pace of tightening, analysts may turn a bit more bullish on the economy as looser monetary conditions remain for longer. However, in all likelihood, the ZEW survey was taken before Thursday’s ECB meeting and judging from this morning’s French industrial production numbers which came in much weaker than expected (falling 0.9 percent in the month of February), the rebound in sentiment may not come for at least another month.

British Pound

Recovery was the theme of the day in the British pound. The Queen’s currency gave back some of Thursday and Friday’s gains against the Euro and ended the day unchanged against the dollar. UK data released this morning was mixed. According to the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, house prices rose a less than expected 3.6 percent in the month of February. This comes as a grave disappointment since recent figures from private organizations have shown a gradual recovery in the UK housing market. In fact, numbers were so promising that analysts were calling for house price growth to increase from 4.3 percent to 4.9 percent. Producer prices were conflicting with input price growth slower than expected and output price growth stronger than expected. This suggests that producers are passing more price increases over to consumers. Over the next 24 hours, we are expecting the BRC retail sales monitor and the trade balance for the month of February. With the British pound showing more overall weakness than the Euro, poor data could exacerbate losses in the pound.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen has lost ground against the US dollar for the third consecutive trading session despite stronger machinery orders. The market is treading carefully ahead of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision and the release of their monthly report. We will be looking for signs of what the central bank’s timetable may be for an interest rate hike. There was a lot of fanfare last week when an advisory report suggested a rate hike could come sooner rather than later. Governor Fukui is slated to talk at a post meeting press conference shortly after the monetary policy decision. USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are trading near important resistance levels. Should Fukui be more hawkish, it would be a perfect marriage of technicals with fundamentals. There is no question that everyone is sitting at the edge of their seats waiting for the Bank of Japan to make their move.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105