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Tuesday April 11, 2006 - 11:00:40 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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5 1/4% in the bag?

Quotable
“The revolutionary idea that defines the boundary between modern times and the past is the mastery of risk: the notion that the future is more than a whim of the gods and that men and women are not passive before nature.”

Peter Bernstein




FX Trading – 5 1/4% in the bag?
Called the “perennial bull” on the US economy, Richard Berner of Morgan Stanley has been right as rain on rates. He still sees the Fed going to 5 ¼ at some point in 2006. He sees a move to 5% in May, a pause, then a move to 5 ¼% on entrenched US and global growth.

Risks to this forecast [our emphasis]:

“First, the ongoing rise in gasoline prices could take prices even beyond their post-Katrina surge, hurting consumer discretionary income. Second, an overshoot in long-term yields could depress housing by even more than we expect, and could also spell trouble for US equity markets. And lurking protectionism could make global investors more wary of US financial markets.”

One would think that if we know 5 ¼ Fed Funds rate is in the bag, it’s time to buy the dollar with both hands. But, the problem is, all three “risks” stated by Mr. Berner are shaping up nicely!






Risk #1: Gas and Crude Oil:


Risk #2: US 30-year Treasury Futures:


Risk #3: Lurking Protectionism:

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- China's trade surplus widened to $11.2 billion in March, the second-highest on record, an increase that may deepen tensions before a meeting between President Hu Jintao and U.S. President George W. Bush next week.

‘”This is really going to aggravate tensions with the U.S. ahead of Hu Jintao's visit,’ said Ben Simpfendorfer, Royal Bank of Scotland's China strategist. ‘Unless there's a dramatic decrease in the coming months, the trade surplus for the year is likely to widen.’”

Point: Despite seemingly excellent global growth prospects and investor enthusiasm for all things financial and many things real, 5 ¼% is far from in the bag.

Thus, we are back to our contention from last week: It’s all about as clear as mud! And that’s what the price action in the currency market seems to be reflecting. Is it “When in doubt stay out time?” We’re not sure.

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital Subscribe to the Black Swan Letter

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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