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Tuesday April 11, 2006 - 23:14:24 GMT
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Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar QSBO paints grim picture
Yesterday’s QSBO business survey did little to help the NZD. While the headline number improved, the broad picture was grim. Firms’ assessment of their own activity suggests the economy is in recession. The market took some time to digest the contents of the survey before selling the currency down to yesterday’s low of 0.6061. The NZD strengthened alongside the AUD in the afternoon to recover its losses, and after a quiet overnight session we open around 0.6115.

Australian Dollar: AUD rides uridashi rollercoaster
The AUD was under pressure yesterday amid fears that this month’s A$2.25b maturities would swamp the pitiful issuance seen so far. But with a rate hike now 100% priced in, and the announcement of an A$656m uridashi, the AUD rallied and managed to crack the 0.7300 level. AUD remained quietly bid during the overnight session and opens around 0.7340 this morning.

Major Currencies: Iran nuclear rumours hurt USD
Z Tuesday was a quiet data day around the world so the market focused on interest rate expectations and geopolitical risk. The market has adjusted its view on both the ECB’s and the Federal Reserve’s future rate hikes. The next ECB rate hike has been brought forward to June and there were question marks around how many more hikes will come from the Fed. More rumours of Iran enriching their uranium stocks to produce nuclear weapons caused a safe haven rally. The USD was sold across the board, the euro rallied throughout the day from 1.2090 to 1.2143 and tests higher as we go to print. Sterling rallied steadily off 1.7418 up to 1.7490 where we open this morning. The yen was a little more volatile, weakening against the dollar from 118.26 to 118.90 but recovered to take USD/JPY back down to the low at 118.25.

Bank of Japan leaves policy unchanged. The Bank announced that they would endeavour to keep the uncollateralised call rate at effectively zero percent for the inter-meeting period. CABs are no longer mentioned in the decision. That reinforces the view that excess reserves will be wound back in a no-nonsense fashion through bill rolloffs, with the bulk of the work coming this month and next. The next installment in this saga comes this Friday when the minutes to the landmark meeting of March 8 and 9 are scheduled for release.

German ZEW analysts relatively downbeat. In contrast to the air of quiet confidence in the European economy the ECB, for example, gives off, the 300+ German analysts and economists that ZEW surveyed beg to differ. In April, for the third month in a row, analysts downgraded their expectations for the German economy (to 62.7 from 63.4) and the Eurozone as a whole (to 58.7 from 61.1). However, the current situation result continued to improve, even though recent German data haven’t been overly robust. Still their remains a noticeable contrast between the analysts’ view forward and the businesses surveyed in the Ifo measure.

Canadian house price growth historically high. House prices continued to rise steadily, up 0.7% m/m in Feb. Annual growth has now accelerated to 7% and you have to go back to 1990 to find faster growth. It is a regional phenomenon as energy companies facing worker shortages lure in workers – alleviating localised shortages in the labour market but creating them in housing. Another reason to expect further action from the Bank of Canada.

UK Feb goods trade deficit much larger than expected. The deficit hit £6.5bn, following substantial historical revisions that put January’s deficit up £800mn to a little over £6.5bn.

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast
Aust Apr WBC-MI Consumer Sentiment 1.3%
US Feb Trade Balance USDbn –68.5 –67.0
Mar Budget Balance USDbn –71.2 –71.2
Jpn Mar M2+CD Money Supply %yr 1.7% n/f
Mar Bank Lending %yr 0.2% 0.5%
Feb Current Account ¥bn 1494 1600
Eur Q4 GDP %qtr (F) 0.3%a 0.4%
ECB Monthly Bulletin
Ger Mar CPI Harmonised %yr (F) 1.9% 1.9%
UK Unemployment Rate 2.9% 2.9%
Can Feb Merchandise Trade CADbn 6.3 6.2

Latest Research papers/Publication
• NZ Q1 QSBO Review (11 April)
• NZ Q1 CPI Preview (11 April)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (10 April)
• NZ Interest Rate Strategy Weekly (10 April)
• NZ Q1 Employment Confidence Index (5 April)
• Exchange rate impact on inflation (3 April)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (3 April)
• NZ Interest Rate Strategy Weekly (3 April)
• A dry wake (31 March)
• NZ Q1 Consumer Confidence (29 March)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Bank’s website (

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.


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AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

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