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Tuesday April 18, 2006 - 09:24:50 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar to fall to the years lowest levels
Yesterdays News and Events:
There was no turning back on Monday with the Dollar gradually loosing additional ground, falling out of its bullish trend against the Japanese Yen and clearing medium-term resistance levels against the British Pound. US data was mixed: While the NY FED Empire State Business Condition Index fell to 15.8, against expectations of a rise to above 30, helping the Euro to stabilize above the 1.2200 level, February Net Capital Inflows reached a much higher than expected $86.9Bln, private investments making up the bulk of the increase. This only temporarily stopped the Dollar descent, with the 1.2290 EURUSD high reached an hour after that data hit the markets.
Chicago FED president Moskow said while core inflation remains contained, policy makers must remain vigilant of upside risks. While this sounds fairly hawkish, note that Moskow is not a voting FED member this year. More from the FED at 7pm GMT when FOMC minutes will be released.
Todays Key Issues:
US March PPI is due at 12.30GMT. After a sharp 1.4% drop in February, expectations are for a 0.4% increase this time around.
At the same time US Housing Starts will be released. Last months increase to 2.12m units is unlikely to be sustained, forecasts are for a drop to 2m units.
March FOMC minutes will be released at 7pm. The market will look for confirmation that the hiking cycle will see a pause in one of the next two meetings, should the statements be too hawkish, the current Dollar descent may be reversed.
The Risk Today:
1H EURUSD: Since hitting a high of 1.2290, the Euro has developed a minor retracting channel, next strong support is the 38% retracement at 1.2220, max downside should be limited to 1.2175. A rise through 1.2260 is bullish for at least 1.2290, expectations are for further rise to 1.2325, the high of 2006.
4H USDJPY: After falling to 117.55 yesterday, the pair has corrected 50% of Monday fall when it rose to 118.20 this morning. There is more strong resistance at 118.35/45, only a daily close back above that level can stop the Dollar from falling back to the trend-support at 117.75. In the medium-term, last weeks failure to clear the 118.80 top is bearish, pressure should be on the Dollar, a renewed break of the 117.75 level is bearish in search of the long-term trend-line at 116.35.
Resistance and Support:
|1.2325 K||1.7920 S||119.20 S||1.2970 K|
|1.2290 S||1.7835 K||118.80 S||1.2875 S|
|1.2260 M||1.7750 S ||118.35 K||1.2830 S|
|1.2220 S||1.7685 S||118.00 M||1.2760 M|
|1.2175 S||1.7660 M ||117.75 K ||1.2725 M|
|1.2090 K||1.7600 S||117.15 S||1.2675 S|
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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