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Thursday April 20, 2006 - 05:33:03 GMT
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Commodities driving Currencies
Yesterdays News and Events:
European Currencies were bought once more and reached new highs this week, while the euro is starting to stall at 1.24, Cable traded up to 1.7935 to reach its target. The Dollar weakness was felt most strongly in other markets, Crude Oil closing at a new all-time high above $72, Gold jumped nearly $20 to near $540 and Silver is reaching its 1983 top of 14.75, it has gained over 65% since the beginning of the year.
US March CPI was up 0.4%, right on expectations, core CPI at 0.3% which was higher than expected, but hawks kept mum about it and the Dollar was sold strongly in the NY market after it had held steady in the European morning.
The BOE Minutes resembled very much the previous month with an 8:1 vote for keeping rates unchanged. Interesting to note that the concerns focus on the underachievement of the inflation target, quiet the opposite we hear from other Central Bankers at the moment.
In an effort to keep political pressure on the BOJ, LDP Yamamoto raised his voice against a an early move calling the prospect of a rate hike in June or July ‘absurd’, suggesting to wait at least for CPI revisions in August.
Todays Key Issues:
The day is filled with data starting with UK March CPI at 8.30GMT, its forecast to grow 0.4% (0.3% previous), YoY change at 2%.
Euroland CPI follows at 9am, its thought to grow by a faster 0.6% (0.3%) and a YoY increase of 2.2%, YoY core CPI at 1.3%
US Weekly Jobless Claims at 12.30GMT should improve slightly to 309k from 313k last week, the 4-week average runs at 307k. US leading indicators at 2pm are forecast to remains steady after falling slightly in February. The April Philadelphia FED Index is due at 4pmGMT and is expected to rise to 15 from 12.3 last time around.
The Risk Today:
4H EURUSD: Last time we looked at this chart we traded near the bottom of the slow rising blue channel, 72h later we cannot possible add more Euro longs. Minimum risk is a fall to yesterdays 1.2290 low, 1.2235 strong support is the 50% retracement of the move up this week. Resistance at 1.2399 is key, a break risk an extension to 1.2475, the medium-term resistance.
Daily GBPUSD: 1.7935 has been reached, this should be a fairly strong resistance, being the last major point ahead of the long-term trend-line above 1.82. Expecting 1.79/1.80 to top the markets this week, I’d like to put on some shorts for a move back down to the 1.7650/1.7750 range. Chances of a break on top are not at all over, don’t forget to place a stop-loss, but we think the resistance is strong enough to hold the markets off for a few days or more.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2475 K ||1.7990 S ||118.65 K ||1.2825 K |
|1.2430 M ||1.7935 K ||118.35 M ||1.2765 S |
|1.2399 S ||1.7900 M ||118.00 S ||1.2715 M |
|1.2355 ||1.7885 ||117.60 ||1.2690 |
|1.2290 S ||1.7870 M ||117.50 M ||1.2670 S |
|1.2235 S ||1.7835 S ||117.35 S ||1.2650 M |
|1.2110 K ||1.7715 S ||116.35 K ||1.2565 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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