User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday April 20, 2006 - 09:14:59 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition

• US core CPI is not necessarily representative of actual price pressures…
• …but USD weakness may be restrained in any case ahead of next Thursday’s testimony from Bernanke.
• CPI data due for UK, Eurozone and Canada – US Philly Fed and jobless claims feature today.

Market Outlook
EUR-USD was eventually able to shrug off the stronger than expected US core CPI number yesterday, with the belief about an impending peak in US rates still a powerful one. Furthermore, the fact that +0.3% numbers were recorded for March core CPI in each of the past two years also suggests some possible seasonal adjustment problems with the data, while the highly weighted (23.4% of total) owners-equivalent rent component (a strong +0.4% m/m) does not feature in the Fed’s favoured measure of core inflation – the core PCE price index. A strong core PCE price number therefore seems unlikely.

However, as was the case yesterday, the EUR-USD gains seen in the US have not been built upon overnight, suggesting that many are cautious about pursuing USD weakness aggressively. One of the reasons for this, apart from the minor question marks raised by the CPI data, is the need for confirmation from the Fed and critical events are forthcoming in this regard over the next few weeks. The next FOMC meeting is on May 10 but on the immediate horizon (next Thursday) is Bernanke’s testimony on the economy before the Joint Economic Committee.

It seems unlikely that he will use such an occasion to say anything controversial, but it is nevertheless an opportunity to signal intentions about the next FOMC meeting if he has the support of his members to do so. The FOMC does of course talk on a more regular basis than the formal policy meetings. Alternatively, he could retreat into ‘central bank speak’, offering a fairly equivocal interpretation of the current situation and this may come across as not overtly supporting a dovish view. Overall, the uncertainty over this event may just restrain EURUSD upside (still favoured in general over the coming month), although there will be room for influence from the data releases between now and Thursday (Philly Fed, jobless claims today and new/existing home sales, consumer confidence and durable orders next week).

Day Ahead
UK – CPI data will need to be unusual to affect market expectations about MPC policy. Headline CPI was at 2% last month after 1.9% in each of the two months before that, while core CPI edged up to +1.4% last month from +1.2%. The market is looking for a further advance in the core y/y rate but 2% will need to be threatened before the market gets really worried.

Eurozone – CPI data is due and while the core y/y rate has been soft for sometime the ECB has largely overlooked this in its pronouncements on inflation risk. Compared to some other central banks like the Fed and the MPC they put far more weight on the headline CPI number, owing to its importance in wage negotiations. However, even the headline CPI number has eased off a little over the past few months.

Canada – CPI is also out in Canada, but the remarkable stability in the core CPIX measure has meant that the market has not moved on this data for some time. The core CPIX y/y rate has been either +1.6% or +1.7% in each of the past seven months. A USD-CAD move towards 1.1300 still seems likely. Retail sales data is due tomorrow.

US – the Philly Fed survey and weekly jobless claims data features today. The Philly Fed has been showing some moderation in recent months, while initial claims appears to have settled around levels consistent with a modest improvement in the labour market compared to late last year.

Japan – activity indices are out tonight and the market is looking for a pullback after last month’s strong showing. The data is unlikely to affect market perceptions about rising trend activity in Japan.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

IT Consumer confidence (Apr) 08.30 109.0
IT Ind orders (Feb) y/y 09.00 +9.8%
GB CPI (Mar) y/y 09.30 +2.0%
GB CPI core (Mar) y/y 09.30 +1.5%
GB RPIX (Mar) y/y 09.30 +2.3%
GB RPI (Mar) y/y 09.30 +2.4%
EU CPI (Mar) y/y 10.00 +2.2%
EU CPI ex-energy/fresh food (Mar) y/y 10.00 +1.3%
CA CPI (Mar) y/y 12.00 +2.1%
CA CPIX (Mar) y/y 12.00 +1.6%
US Initial claims (w/e Apr 15) 13.30 308k
US Continuing claims (w/e Apr 8) 13.30 2439k
US Lead indicators (Mar) m/m 15.00 0.0%
US Philly Fed index (Apr) 17.00 14.0
JP Tertiary index (Feb) m/m 00.50 -1.1%
JP All-industry index (Feb) m/m 00.50 -1.1%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Trade balance (Mar, sa) ¥698bn ¥572bn
CN CPI (Mar) y/y +0.8% +1.3%
CN PPI (Mar) y/y +2.5% +2.9%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader


Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook

Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated


Trader's Advocate Articles..


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105