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Friday April 21, 2006 - 09:16:11 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar has rebounded from its lows on Wednesday, excesses in Gold and Silver have been corrected with in a sharp drop, the Euro and the Pound sterling have each lost about 38% from their respective high this week. CPI data in Europe helped the direction of traders banking on a correction with an annualized CPI in the UK falling to 1.8% from 2.0, as a confirmation of a step towards monetary easing in the months to come. Euroland CPI was also a touch lower than expected, while the reported 2.2% YoY rise is still above the ECB’s target of ‘under 2%’, fears of an increase have been dampened and may cause some analysts to reduce their too hawkish views of up to 3 rate increases by end 2006.
The Philadelphia FED Index improved to 13.2 from 12.3 in March. Weaker then expected it had temporarily stopped the Dollar recovery.
Todays Key Issues:
No relevant trade data today.
The Risk Today:
1H EURUSD: The retracing trend-line was broken a little while ago at 1.2305 and the pair spike to 1.2350 in a rash move before returning to 1.2320. Looks like we will have a day of side-ways movement, consolidating around 1.23 with initial resistance 1.2325 and stronger at 1.2360, 1.2400 should top the market. Underneath a fall underneath of 1.2305 should see it try the 1.2270 level once more and advance to 1.2235 for a low weekly close.
1H USDCHF: It has retraced to 1.2820 and achieved a first target to the upside, this morning a sharp sell-off saw it dip to 1.2735, but the hour may still close above the current bullish trend-line, in which case we advocate a new try of the 1.2820 level and see the possibility to rise to 1.2880 for a high weekly close. Alternative is a neutral day between 1.2720 and 1.2800.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2475 K ||1.7935 K ||118.65 K ||1.2935 K |
|1.2400 S ||1.7885 S ||118.00 M ||1.2880 S |
|1.2360 M ||1.7830 M ||117.85 S ||1.2820 S |
|1.2325 ||1.7820 ||117.35 ||1.2775 |
|1.2300 M ||1.7770 M ||117.30 M ||1.2730 M |
|1.2260 S ||1.7715 S ||117.15 S ||1.2680 S |
|1.2190 S ||1.7660 K ||116.35 K ||1.2565 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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