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Monday April 24, 2006 - 09:34:13 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
G7 calls for currency flexibility
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
A statement by the G7 finance ministers, calling especially on Asian nations to augment the flexibility of their currencies was the cause for yet another weak start for the US Dollar. The greenback immediately lost 1% of value against the Japanese YEN, at the European opening, the sell-off become more general with the Euro spiking to above 1.2400, USDJPY hit a low of 114.85.
IMF Director Burton hit in the same curb saying that China should not allow its Yuan to follow an eventual Dollar weakness, but that the after the reforms introduced last July there was much left to be done.
The G7 meeting did not only add pressure on the Chinese but spoke of the possibility of a sharp decline in the Dollars value and ways on how to smoothen such an adjustment in order not to damage the US economy to strongly. Within G7 nations the Dollars decline needs for an even distribution and not be too rapid or pose large inflation risks.
Todays Key Issues:
UK March Retail Sales Data were slightly better than expected rising by 0.7% after 0.5% rise last month.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD: The week started with a rally to 1.2400, this is the first large resistance, a breech here calls for a rise to a new high, target is 1.2485 this week. While underneath we can retrace the days spike and return to 1.2330 strong support, a daily close underneath of that is bearish for 1.2220.
Daily USDJPY: The day opened with a gap and a fall through the long-term rising support, 114.85 traded this morning. This is probably an exaggeration and we can expect the pair to retrace some today, resistance on the way up at 115.30 and 115.65 strong, 116.30 is now the key resistance, sell ahead of that level and establish medium-term shorts. Next target is the 113.40 low seen in January.
1H USDCHF: Here too we’ve had a gap at the markets opening and it’s remained in a minor bearish trend since retracing to the 1.2820 resistance. Minor trend-line at 1.2720 this morning, a break should see a quick lift to 1.2760, but while the trend holds it can continue trading down to 1.2660.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2480 K ||1.8020 M ||116.60 K ||1.2820 S |
|1.2450 M ||1.7985 S ||115.80 S ||1.2760 S |
|1.2400 S ||1.7935 K ||115.25 S ||1.2720 T |
|1.2380 ||1.7910 ||115.15 ||1.2705 |
|1.2355 T ||1.7880 M ||114.85 M ||1.2680 M |
|1.2320 M ||1.7815 S ||114.20 S ||1.2650 S |
|1.2270 S ||1.7770 K ||113.45 K ||1.2565 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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