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Monday July 12, 2004 - 07:50:54 GMT
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Forex Trading Strategies - July 12th 2004

USD/JPY probes support at 107.00 -106.80, may accelerate lower towards 103.50 base further out

The yen rose to two-week high versus the dollar in Asia after Japan's ruling party lost fewer seats than had been indicated in yesterday's election, allowing PM Junichiro Koizumi to keep his mandate.


- Japan's ruling coalition held onto its majority in the upper house, allowing Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to pursue his policies of curbing government debt and spurring the economy. Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party won 49 seats -- more than some polls had suggested before Sunday's vote. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan won 50 seats according to preliminary results reported by NHK Television. The LDP's coalition partner, New Komeito, gained 11 seats. Koizumi will probably remain prime minister until 2006, when his term as LDP leader ends, because he needn't face a general election before that and the party has no credible alternative

- The surplus in Japan's current account rose 23.8% in May from a year earlier. The surplus now stands at •1.71 trillion (US$15.88 billion); the eleventh consecutive monthly rise trails the 23.1% growth in Aprilís current account surplus. The increase in the Mayís surplus was substantially larger than the rise of 11.9% expected. Japanís unadjusted trade surplus, part of the current account, rose 37.7%, year-on-year for May. Japanís export-led recovery continues with exports increasing 10% to 4.5 trillion yen in May, while imports rose 3% to •3.4 trillion. Trade with Europe and China remained particularly strong.

FX Market Summary

The yen rose to a two-week high versus the dollar in Asia after Japan's ruling party lost fewer seats than some polls had indicated in yesterday's election, allowing Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to keep his mandate. The result may help Koizumi, who has presided over the longest economic expansion in seven years, to win backing for efforts to curb spending and push banks to write off their worthless loans. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose as much as 1.4 percent, after falling four of the past five days on concern Koizumi may be forced to quit. The yen rose to 107.96 to the dollar at 12:52 p.m. in Tokyo, from 108.19 in New York Friday. It traded as high as 107.57, its strongest since June 28. Japan's currency also gained to 133.80 per euro, from 134.30.

The dollar generally lost ground in currency trading on Friday, falling 0.1% against the euro and 0.6% vs. the Japanese yen. The greenback did edge up 0.1% against the Canadian dollar, however. The U.S. dollar continued its recent slide amid new concerns about possible terrorist attacks in the U.S. and some anxiety regarding the corporate earnings outlook, which prompted some doubts about the strength of the U.S. economy. The U.S. dollar was lower against the euro at $1.2420 per euro. The British pound marked another three-month high against the greenback benefiting from the U.S. currencyís broad weakness. Sterling advanced despite the Bank of Englandís decision to leave monetary policy unchanged -≠ a move that was widely expected. Sterling has been to 1.8623 and is currently fetching 1.8582.

Canada's dollar rose for a fourth straight week after several government reports showed further evidence of economic expansion, boosting speculation Canada's central bank will lift its key interest rate this year. Investors increased bets the Bank of Canada will raise its target rate a quarter point to 2.25 percent by year-end, after the central bank reduced borrowing costs three times this year to spur economic growth. Higher interest rates may boost demand for Canadian dollar-denominated debt.

Forex Technicals:

EUR/USD - the currency meets firm resistance at 1.2425 area, but should find support near 1.2360 -- no change in the view. As stated earlier, we now fell fairly confident that the positive short-term and medium-term views have been validated. The currency should push through and beyond 1.2500 in the next few days. Firmer resistance await near 1.2700. We would like to see 1.2500 taken out before venturing further positive comments, but looks like momentum is getting set for follow-through to 1.2900 further out.

GBP/USD - the currency rose again and has been to as high as 1.8625. The ongoing decline may find support at 1.8550 area, then resume the uptrend A double iteration of 4th and 5th waves this week may bring on 1.8750 as the next focus. Positive expectation of further rate hikes likely to push the currency forward even further in the days to come. The rally through 1.8500 has reinstated the 1.9100 targets.

USD/JPY - the currency fell to as low as 107.50 after news that PM Koizumi's party did not lose as many seats as expected. This move seriously compromised the bullish scenario we had. The downtrend may have reasserted and may have another go at 107.00 trough further out. The next downside target is 105.70 then 103.50.

USD/CHF - the currency saw support again at 1.2220, and traded sideways. No change in view -- the currency pair should eventually resume the downtrend, and follows through lower once more. We still expect to see further declines to 1.2150 base and then through 1.2000 much further out.

USD/CAD -- the currency pair has been to 1.3230, but fell since then and is poised to have another go at 1.3140 -- no change in the view -- the downtrend resumes in earnest shortly. The next downside target may still be the area of 1.3000.

AUD/USD - the currency has been to .7260 and threatens to rise further towards minor resistance at .7370 area. Further out, the uptrend should focus at .7500 objectives.

NZD/USD - the currency finds resistance again at .6590 but should eventually go through. The currency should continue to accelerate higher from there towards the .6800 focal point further out.

EUR/JPY - the cross stumbles and has been to 133.50. The cross might yet rise to as high as 137.00 thereafter before significant resistance appears. The longer-term scenario takes on a large sideways consolidation requiring a sell-off from 138.00 - 139.00 potential resistance.

EUR/CHF - the cross continues to gyrate and will likely find support at 1.5175 - 1.5170 area again, which should propel the cross higher thereafter. We expect a rally to at least 1.5350 further out. The cross is forming a broad bottom -- for the first time in many weeks, the cross shows signs of a longer-lasting reversal. Any rally above 1.5430 suggests that the long bear market is over.

EUR/GBP - the cross may revisit .6660 level again -- and should be upward bound from here. The uptrend resumes soon, which has .6820 as next upside focus.


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