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Wednesday April 26, 2006 - 08:47:00 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
The Euro taking the lead
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
While the USDJPY has started retracing its sharp fall from Monday and the Cable and the Swiss Franc’s advances seem to stall, the Euro has again traded to a new yearly high of 1.2440 and the prospect remain bullish for more. German IFO Business Climate Index was one cause for the sustained bullish move, it was up half a point to a 15years high of 105.9. The Euroland Current Account in February showed a deficit of €5.6Bln, lower than expected, the Trade deficit on the other hand improved to €3.1Bln, thanks to lower imports. But it was a combination of stronger than expected Home Sales of 6.92m units and a four-year high of 109.6 in the US April Consumer Confidence data that caused the largest intra-day volatility, the Euro fell from its 1.2440 high back to 1.2370 and it took the rest of the NY session to move back up to end the day bullish.
Minutes from the March FOMC meeting revealed a clear 11-1 vote in favor of hiking US interest rates to the present 4.75% level as core inflation was judged to be at the upper side of its desired band and the economic growth appeared solid.
ECB executive board member Gonzalez-Paramo with some very hawkish remarks said that growth forecasts were lifted slightly and that the pace of rate hikes could increase.
Todays Key Issues:
UK first Quarter GDP data is due at 8.30GMT, an increase of 0.6% is forecast, YoY growth is up 2.2%.
Euroland February Industrial Production at 9am is expected up 0.2% after remaining steady in January. YoY it should be up by a healthy 3.1%.
US March Durable Goods orders at 12.30GMT is seen up 1.5% down from its transportation-driven increase of 2.7% in February. US New Home Sales at 2pm finally are forecast to stand at 1.06m units, down from 1.1m in February.
The Risk Today:
1H EURUSD: Current dip must stop here at 1.2400, else a new dip to 1.2370 and probably further correction down to 1.2330 must be expected. But for as long as it holds, remain bullish and expect us to stretch the top to 1.2485, in case momentum picks up against the other currencies, the bullish move could reach 1.2560.
1H USDJPY: Minor corrective wave has developed, trend-support at 115.05 and target of 115.60, key resistance and 38% retracement-level of the week-end fall. A breech to the downside sends the pair to 114.30 first, medium-term target 113.50ish.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2510 M ||1.8000 S ||116.40 K ||1.2820 K |
|1.2485 K ||1.7935 K ||115.60 S ||1.2760 M |
|1.2450 S ||1.7890 M ||115.25 S ||1.2715 T |
|1.2420 ||1.7830 ||115.05 ||1.2695 |
|1.2405 T ||1.7815 S ||114.95 T ||1.2670 M |
|1.2370 M ||1.7770 S ||114.30 S ||1.2560 K |
|1.2330 S ||1.7680 K ||113.45 K ||1.2450 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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