Thursday April 27, 2006 - 07:13:51 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Risk of a correction increases
by Marc Spaelti
EURUSD: Another high and still in bullish trend, but the Euroâ€™s rise is very slow and an isolated case as the GBP and CHF stopped gaining for a third day. Trend-line at 1.2440, intra-day we can dip to 1.2425, further dip is a sign of correcting the rise from 1.2280. 1.2400 is 38% retracement level, next strong support at 1.2355. While the bullish trend remains in place the upside can extend to 1.2485 and into the 1.25 handle but without any assistance from the other currencies, this move will run out of steam around 1.2580, next key resistance.
GBPUSD: Bulls need to be patient, the top above 1.79 resisted well and the pair continued sideways around 1.7850, the immediate bullish support has been broken and we are at risk of falling to 1.77, minor support 1.7825, stronger 1.7800 and 1.7770. Strong resistance has fallen to 1.7895, more at 1.7935, a break is very bullish for a quick rise to above 1.81.
USDJPY: The Dollar came again under pressure, closing the day underneath of the 115 level, it is set to fall and test the 114.30 low today and maybe extend down to 113.85. Minor support 114.60, initial resistance 115.00, a break on top can see a rise to 115.40 once more, key resistance 115.65.
USDCHF: While the pressure remains on the Dollar, the Swiss Franc has made absolutely no progress, stubbornly holding the 1.2670-ish level, the 2-week bearish trend has now been broken and we look set to retrace to 1.2820, key resistance has advanced to 1.2875. A move to the downside is possible but seems less likely today, sell with a stop-entry upon a break of the 1.2650 level, and look to dip to at least 1.2670 or 1.2450 max.
@12.30GMT US Weekly Jobless Claims
@14.00GMT US Bernanke speaks
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