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Thursday April 27, 2006 - 08:44:31 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Euro higher, other currencies not
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The EURUSD has reached 1.2470, maintaining its 10-day bullish trend, next target ahead is the sep’05 spike of 1.2585. Meanwhile the other pairs have stalled or even retraced and the risk of seeing a deeper correction seems to increase.
News-wise it was not at all bad for the US currency, Durable Goods Orders in March increased a surprisingly strong 6.1% and the FED beige book was also supportive of good economic growth. This is really not the environment to aggressively sell US-Dollars, hence the slowing momentum of the European Currencies rise, but beware: any bad news out of the US will probably have a stronger effect on Forex markets and in this respect we look forward to Mr Bernanke’s testimony later on today.
Todays Key Issues:
Germany’s ILO Employment report showed a small 4k increase in March, unemployment decreased by 90k and the unemployment rate now stands a touch lower at 8.4% from 8.5% in February
Weekly Unemployment Claims at 12.30GMT are expected to rise slightly to 305k, the 4w average is due to stabilize around 305k as well.
FED Chairman Bernanke is due to speak from 2pm GMT onwards, the question will once again turn on the subject how far and how fast the US FED expects to rise interest rates.
The Risk Today:
4H EURUSD: The bullish trend is still in place and we continue making new highs. The orange medium-term resistance at 1.2485 is fairly strong resistance, target is 100 points higher at 1.2585, last seen in September 2005. Risk is to correct from here with space to at least reach the low 1.23’s, but even a return to 1.2150 cannot be ruled out.
4H GBPUSD: Unlike the Euro, the recent top form a descending resistance, top at 1.7900 looks still strong and we risk a pull-back to the 1-month bullish support at 1.7725 in the short-term. But while the immediate 1.7830 support remains in place, prospect for a furious move up to above 1.80 remains intact.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2580 K ||1.8000 M ||115.65 K ||1.2875 K |
|1.2520 M ||1.7935 K ||115.40 S ||1.2820 S |
|1.2485 S ||1.7895 S ||115.00 S ||1.2750 M |
|1.2450 ||1.7840 ||114.75 ||1.2705 |
|1.2440 T ||1.7830 S ||114.60 M ||1.2670 M |
|1.2400 S ||1.7800 M ||114.30 S ||1.2650 K |
|1.2355 K ||1.7730 K ||113.85 S ||1.2570 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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