User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday April 27, 2006 - 10:36:18 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD retains gains despite positive economic news for the US.
• Ongoing data strength is a cause for concern for USD bears - inflation indications will be key.
• Bernanke’s speech is the main feature today.
• RBNZ statement implies they are content with current NZD levels – this could allow further NZD
recovery in the short-term.
• BoC monetary policy report also due today.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD continues to shrug off strong US data developments, reflecting the move in sentiment on to balance of payments rather than interest rate factors. This either a very powerful move in the works or the market is being sucked into something it will regret. The price action has to be respected and the negative BoP backdrop for the USD is not in doubt, but there is a risk of US rate expectations once again coming back to bite EUR-USD if current data developments continue, as was the case in February. The Beige Book also offered an upbeat account of the economy yesterday, citing rising retail sales and manufacturing orders, but crucially noting that companies were still having mixed success in passing on higher input prices. How the Fed sees the situation will of course be of primary importance in the short-term and Bernanke’s speech will be key today (see below). His observations about inflation will be significant, as will Monday’s core PCE price index. Upside progress on EUR-USD today could be more difficult and 1.2490-1.2500 should hold it for now. 1.2325-60 is key support.

A mixed statement from the RBNZ in leaving rates unchanged. They said that the economy had weakened faster than expected since the early March meeting, but that inflation pressure had intensified. They saw the slowdown in domestic demand continuing through this year, but that this would be partly offset by improvements in net exports due to the lower exchange rate. They also cited the lower exchange rate as a factor in the worsening inflation backdrop, due to the impact on import prices. However, they reiterated that policy would not be used to counteract one-off shocks on prices and that they did not expect to raise rates again in this cycle, before adding that vigilance was still needed over the possibility of such shocks spilling over to wage and pricing behaviour in general. They also made it clear that there was no scope for a rate cut this year.

None of this makes a whole lot of difference to the NZD, although it does confirm the impression given over the past month that the authorities will be less keen on actively pursuing NZD weakness. This removal of the sense of panic surrounding the NZD suggests that a further recovery may be seen in the short-term, but this may also require a weaker USD in general. Above 0.6375 would be the trigger for such a move, although 0.65 should hold it. Stabilisation in a 0.60-0.65 range would probably be ideal for now as far as the RBNZ are concerned.

The USD-CAD move below 1.1300 is a threatening one and with the spec market not that long of CAD, further progress could be seen in the short-term towards the 1991 low at 1.1190. However, USD developments in general will be closely watched, while the BoC Monetary Policy Report is also due (see below for preview).

Day Ahead
US – Bernanke gives his much anticipated testimony on the economic outlook and the market will be looking for more clues about the proximity of a possible peak in the funds rate. It seems unlikely that Bernanke will offer anything too different from recent Fed messages. In other words, he will express optimism about the prospects for sustainable non-inflationary growth and reiterate that Fed tightening is nearly done. Key factors will be 1) his observations about inflation e.g. does he lay more stress on the lack of a pick-up in core inflation or the lingering threat of a pick-up given high resource utilisation? 2) the wording of any reference to a possible end to Fed tightening e.g. close, fairly close, very close etc and 3) whether he refers to the impact yet to come of previous tightening. Overall, it seems unlikely that outstanding issues of uncertainty will be resolved by this address.

Canada – the BoC monetary policy report will likely reiterate the themes mentioned by the BoC on Tuesday – namely, that the economy is now operating at or above its production capacity rather than just ‘at capacity’ while the strength of the CAD is posing challenges for some sectors (recent weakness in exports). On the basis of the observations made about the economy it would appear that the BoC is still set on more rate rises, although there are elements of doubt. On Tuesday, they also said that economic developments would be monitored “in light of the cumulative increase in the policy interest rate since last September." This is a sign that they are mindful of the tightening effects that have now accumulated. Whether this issue has a bearing on short-term policy decisions is something the market will be looking for guidance on today, especially at BoC governor Dodge’s press conference.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Initial claims (w/e Apr 22) 08.30 305k
US Continuing claims (w/e Apr 15) 08.30 2439k last
US Fed’s Bernanke testifies on economy 10.00
CA BoC Monetary Policy Report 10.30
CA BoC Mon Report press conference 11.15

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ RBNZ rate announcement 7.25% 7.25%
NZ Trade balance (Mar) NZ$59m -NZ$268mn
JP Small business confidence (Apr) 50.8 51.5
GB N’wide house prices (Apr) m/m +0.1% +0.5%
SE Consumer confidence (Apr) 17.5 15.0
IT Business confidence (Apr) 96.1 93.5
DE Unemployment (Apr) -40k -35k
DE Employment (Mar) -15k +5kR last
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105