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Friday April 28, 2006 - 09:15:54 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Cable rising through 1.8000
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
FED Chairman Bernanke congressional testimony was marked by the prospects of an immediate pause in the FED tightening cycle. He said that future monetary policy decisions will be dependent on the evolving economic outlook and spoke of softening housing markets, a moderation of growth prospects and stable core inflation next. For the upcoming May FOMC meeting a rate hike was priced in and expected by many analysts, so the prospect of a sudden stop sent the Dollar lower. The Euro reacted with a strong rise from 1.24 to reach 1.2560, Cable and the Swiss Franc finally moved on to higher levels as well, GBPUSD trades above 1.80 for the first since September’05.
EURUSD and USDCHF are both trading with a 1.25-handle, our overlay of the two currencies shows that last time the two met in Aug-Set’05 the ‘cross-over’ did not happen or was only short-lived, in June’05 and Nov’04 however, an acceleration of the move was witnessed.
BOJ Governor Fukui this morning said that interest rates should be adjusted if the economy continued to recover, such a move could come as early as July, earlier then LDP officials would like. The statement helped to keep USDJPY underneath of 114.40 this morning, trend remains bearish.
Todays Key Issues:
Euroland April Consumer Confidence at 9am is expected to stay in line with previous months, with the main Index at -10.5 after -11 in March.
Swiss KOF Leading Indicator for April is forecast to remain at 1.3Bln, its due at 9.30am.
US 1st quarter GDP at 2.30am is expected to show very strong growth of 4.4% after just 1.7% in Q4, the price deflator should come in around 2.5%. The final April U. Michigan Sentiment Index at 1.45pm ought to remain roughly unchanged at 89.0 and Chicago Purchasing Manager Index at 2pm is forecast to easy to 58.3 from 60.4 in March.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD: It stays firmly bullish, 7-day trend-line at 1.2480, initial support 1.2520, we can rise to 1.2585 strong resistance, a weekly closure above 1.26 is bullish for 1.2720 next.
Daily GBPUSD: With the 1.7935 level broken, we turn to the next long-term target, it’s the long-term bearish trend-line above 1.82. The current move may maintain a lot of momentum that we cannot rule out a quick move higher today, initial target 1.8130, short-term support at 1.8000, key support 1.7935.
4H USDCHF: A low of 1.2555 traded, this is a large support and the lower boundary of the 1-month bearish trend. An extension down further is of course possible, next medium-term support lies at 1.2260. But don’t be too surprised in case the market is stopped here and reverses to back above 1.26. The medium-term outlook will remain bearish, bearish trend-line and key resistance is above 1.28.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2650 M ||1.8210 K ||115.40 K ||1.2840 K |
|1.2620 S ||1.8135 S ||114.80 M ||1.2650 S |
|1.2585 K ||1.8085 S ||114.50 S ||1.2580 M |
|1.2550 ||1.8040 ||114.25 ||1.2560 |
|1.2520 M ||1.8000 S ||114.10 M ||1.2555 S |
|1.2480 T ||1.7940 K ||113.80 S ||1.2515 M |
|1.2400 K ||1.7800 S ||113.35 K ||1.2445 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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