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Monday May 1, 2006 - 16:25:10 GMT
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Forex and Commodity Market Commentary and Analysis (1 May 2006)



The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2690 level and was supported around the $1.2610 level. Stops were triggered above the $1.2650 level today, representing the 50% retracement of the move from $1.3665 to $1.1640. An indication from Fed Chairman Bernanke last week that the Fed may pause or end its current tightening cycle soon caused the pair to move to multi-month highs. The fed funds futures market is now pricing in about a 26% chance that interest rates will be 5.25% at the end of the June, down from 64% last Wednesday. This means most traders believe the Fed will lift rates by +25bps on 10 May and then pause at the end-of-June FOMC meeting. Data released in the U.S. today saw March personal income increase +0.6% while March personal spending was up +0.8%, both stronger-than-expected. Personal consumption expenditures were up +0.4% while core PCE were up +0.3%, the largest gain since October. Notably, core inflation is up about 2.0% over the past year, right at the upper end of the Fed’s perceived comfort zone. Other data released today saw the April ISM manufacturing report improve to 57.3 from March’s print of 55.2 and March construction spending rallied +0.9%. Liquidity is reduced in Europe today on account of the Labour Day holiday and will return to normal tomorrow. EMU-12 PMI surveys will be released tomorrow and this Friday’s April U.S. non-farm payrolls report will be critical for the dollar, especially given its recent troubles. Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.2770 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen extended recent gains vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥112.45 level and was capped around the ¥113.85 level. Technically, today’s intraday low is just above the 23.6% retracement of the move from ¥147.65 to ¥101.30. Japanese financial markets will be closed from Wednesday through Friday for the Golden Week holiday and liquidity will be reduced in Tokyo. The pair’s sell-off today took placed even though Bank of Japan Governor Fukui was not hawkish about the prospect of lifting interest rates from near zero per cent on Friday. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 0.12% to close at ¥16,925.71. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥111.55 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥142.50 level and was capped around the ¥143.65 level. The British pound and Swiss franc weakened vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥206.15 and ¥91.20 levels, respectively. In Chinese news, Chinese financial markets are closed this week. People’s Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee member Yu Yongding today said last week’s rate hike was “a signal” to the markets and a “modest” step.

£

The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.8415 level and was supported around the $1.8230 level. Data released in the U.K. today saw Hometrack house prices rise 0.6% in April, the largest monthly increase since May 2004. Liquidity was muted in London today on account of a Bank holiday. Cable offers are cited around the US$ 1.8535 level. The euro came off vis-à-vis the British pound as the cross tested bids around the ₤0.6885 level and was capped around the ₤0.6925 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc was little-changed vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.2285 level and was capped around the CHF 1.2410 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 50% retracement of the move from CHF 1.1285 to CHF 1.3285. Dollar bids are cited around the CHF 1.2050 level. The euro came off vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.5590 level and was capped around the CHF 1.5655 level. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as sterling tested offers around the CHF 2.2665 levels.

AUD

The Australian dollar moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.7635 level and was supported around the $0.7570 level. Technically, the $0.7615 level remains a key pivot point. Reserve Bank of Australia will meet on Wednesday and some dealers believe the central bank could tighten monetary policy by 25bps to 5.75%. Australian dollar offers are cited around the US$ 0.7695 level.

CAD

The Canadian dollar extended recent gains vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 1.1130 level and was capped around the C$ 1.1185 level. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the C$ 1.1225 level.


NZD

The New Zealand dollar came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as kiwi tested bids around the US$ 0.6355 level and was capped around the $0.6425 level. The April ANZ commodity price index will be released on Thursday. New Zealand dollar offers are cited around the US$ 0.6495 level.

Gold/ Silver

Gold moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the yellow metal tested offers around the US$ 661.45 level and was supported around the $ 651.10 level. Today’s intraday high represents multi-decade highs dating to 1980. Liquidity was reduced on account of holidays in Asia and Europe and will return to normal tomorrow. Silver moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the pair tested offers around the US$ 14.09 level and was supported around the $13.49 level.

Crude oil

Crude oil continued its move higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as light, sweet NYMEX crude futures for June delivery tested offers around the US$ 72.85 level and was supported around the $71.70 level. News of a fire at an Italian oil refinery and Iran’s refusal to end its nuclear ambitions acted were supply-side factors today that pushed the pair higher. News that Nigerian militants bombed a bridge in the oil-rich delta also pushed the pair higher.

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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