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Tuesday May 4, 2004 - 00:45:20 GMT
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Forecast for FX Majors 4th May 2004

General Market Conditions

Given the partial holiday yesterday there is no surprise to yesterday's price movement which was very close to expectations. Indeed we feel that it supports our view for further Dollar losses within a medium term correction lower. AS such we look for key Dollar resistances to hold at 1.1890-1.1910 Euro, 1.3030-45 Swissie and we think that the British Pound may already have found a low around 1.7700. This should translate into a move later on today towards 1.2070 Euro, 1.2760-70 Swissie and 1.7845-80 British Pound. Once again the Japanese Yen looks removed from the general patterns against the European currencies and here we feel that while 110.00 holds there could still be a chance of seeing gains towards 111.30-55 before falling away once again. Any direct loss of 110.00 would imply a deeper move lower to 108.60-70.


USDJPY
Price: 110.20

Day View
Resistance: 110.35 ... 110.70 ... 111.10 ... 111.30
Support....: 110.00 ... 109.80 ... 109.50 ... 109.20

Bias: While 110.00 holds a mild bias in favor of a move higher to 111.30-55

Bullish: The structure here is a little complex and while we favor a move to 111.30-55 it may be safer to wait for confirmation. In early trading we need to see 110.00 hold and assuming we see a move back above 110.35 and then key resistance at 111.70 we feel there should be follow-through to 111.30 at least and we suspect to 111.55. However, if seen, we feel this should provide a cap to this section of the rally.

Bearish: Although we marginally favor a bullish stance today we do recognize that the structure is quite ambiguous and any drop below 110.00 is going to begin threatening losses. Thus on a breach of 110.00 the emphasis would reverse and suggest the next drop should reach 109.20 at least and probably down to the important 108.60-70 area. However, we look for this level to hold. Further support is at 108.30.



Week View
Resistance: 111.15 ... 111.60 ... 112.20 ... 113.25
Support....: 109.20 ... 108.70 ... 107.25 ... 106.30

With the partial holiday price spanned the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and we still feel a little more consolidation is likely before further medium term strength. Schaff Trend Cycle has finally moved down towards zero while FXS-RSI has been moving sideways in neutral territory. The medium to long term is still positive and we see the 108.30-70 area as good support. Break above 111.55 is required to confirm further upside.

Bullish: The short term picture is a little mixed but we retain an underlying medium term bullish stance. However, we do feel this may take a little while longer to develop and therefore resistance at 111.35-55 has a good chance of holding with the bigger risk for a drift back down to 109.50 at least with 108.70 providing further support. However, while this lower support holds we still consider the next move to be higher towards 113.25 at least and we feel a more aggressive target is possible at 114.25.

Bearish: The downside from 111.01 has been shallow thus far and we still feel there is more chance of a return to the 109.50 level once again. Further support is at 108.30-70 and this should provide a good base. Thus only below 108.00-30 would suggest a weaker performance and a return to 107.00-30.


Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 109.25 ... 111.15 ... 112.30 ... 114.90
Support....: 104.80 ... 103.30 ... 101.30 ..... 99.50

Having seen a move back above the 107.21-65 area the emphasis appears to be back on the upside in line with the bullish weekly and monthly cycles. We require 104.80-00 to hold for this and a move back above 109.25 would encourage gains up to 111.15, 112.32 with 114.90 being a higher target to keep in mind. Back below 104.80 would threaten the 103.42 low and call for losses down to 100.40.



EURUSD
Price: 1.1935

Day View
Resistance: 1.1945 ... 1.1980 ... 1.2005 ... 1.2040
Support....: 1.1915 ... 1.1890 ... 1.1855 ... 1.1840

Bias: Higher from the 1.1890-1.1915 area

Bullish: Price has been a bit choppy but as expected has moved back down to the 1.1917 corrective low. We feel there is room for one further dip towards 1.1890-1.1910 but this should provide a platform for further gains to break above initial resistance at 1.1945-50 which should take price back to 1.1980. Break of this higher level would confirm further gains which we see progressing to the 1.2070 level which we feel should hold on the day. Further resistance is at 1.2115 and 1.2160.

Bearish: Price has moved down nicely from the 1.2012 high but we cannot get bearish until the 1.1890 level is broken. Only then would we feel the upside has been completed at 1.2012 and further losses are likely. Next support is at 1.1840 break of which would signal a retest of the 1.1758 low. Next larger support is at 1.1695.



Week View
Resistance: 1.2070 ... 1.2160 ... 1.2200 ... 1.2310
Support....: 1.1890 ... 1.1840 ... 1.1760 ... 1.1570

Yesterday saw price spanning the 4-hour Pivot Cloud but in line with our expectations. Schaff TC1 is now decling but close to zero while FXS-RSI has also declined but is in neutral territory. With the break of 1.1950 the emphasis does appear to be to the upside with likely targets around 1.2070-90 and then 1.2160. However, watch this area closely for signs of reversal.

Yesterday's comments continue to apply:

Bullish: The reversal from 1.1805 and break of 1.1950 signals a move to 1.2075 at least and possibly 1.2160-00. While this is possible price should remain above 1.1890-1.1920. At the target a further set back is possible and we shall need to see how deep this pullback bites. Further resistance is at 1.2335.

Bearish: The break of 1.1950 appears to reduce the chance of a direct resumption of the downtrend and may cause a period of choppy and erratic trading. We do feel that the initial move will be higher towards 1.2070 and probably up to 1.2160-00 at least. Thus only a break below 1.1890 would cause to re-assess and probably cause a move back to 1.1840 and then 1.1758-00 at least.


Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 1.2085 ... 1.2325 ... 1.2455 ... 1.2655
Support....: 1.1720 ... 1.1560 ... 1.1310 ... 1.1165

While the progress lower has been choppy we do feel that the repeated rejection around 1.2400-55 and the decline from there should now allow price to move down to the Double Top target around 1.1720-50 and we suspect now a stronger decline. Support at 1.1560 may hold for a while but we while 1.1820-50 holds we consider the larger risk to be lower to 1.1165 over the next 4-6 weeks.


USDCHF
Price: 1.3010

Day View
Resistance: 1.3025 ... 1.3045 ... 1.3075 ... 1.3100
Support....: 1.3000 ... 1.2980 ... 1.2955 ... 1.2915

Bias: Lower from the 1.3030-45 area

Bullish: Although price development was slightly different from expectations we have seen a test of the strategic 1.3025-45 resistance. We feel there is a good chance of a further test of this resistance with a target at 1.3045 but we feel this will hold. Thus only above 1.3050 would trigger follow-through higher once again. Next resistance is at the 1.3095-00 corrective peaks and a break her and more importantly at 1.3125 would see price continue higher to retest the 1.3226 high.

Bearish: As expected we have seen test of the 1.3025-45 resistance target mentioned yesterday and this may well have provided a peak but we suspect there should be one further test during the first half of the day but while 1.3045-50 holds we look for loss of 1.2980-00 to signal the next leg lower to 1.2915 and then we look for a move down through 1.2830 and to 1.2760-70 where we feel a temporary base should develop. Next support is at 1.2710-20.



Week View
Resistance: 1.3050 ... 1.3125 ... 1.3225 ... 1.3360
Support....: 1.2825 ... 1.2760 ... 1.2710 ... 1.2655

Yesterday saw trading around the 4-hour Pivot Cloud which has managed to break above but not cleanly. Schaff Trend Cycle moved higher to reach 100 while FXS-RSI matched this rally but has yet to reach overbought territory. We feel the 1.3025-45 area will hold and generate the expected decline first to 1.2760-70 and then the 1.2700-20 area.

Yesterday's comments continue to apply:

Bullish: Currently there appears to be an upward bias but we feel this should not break above the 1.3050 level. Thus only a break here and then at 1.3100-25 would call for direct gains back towards 1.3226 and probably higher with next targets at 1.3360 and 1.3490.

Bearish: Although the medium term correction has been choppy we continue to consider the next likely turning point will be back in the area of the 1.2710 corrective low. Resistance at 1.3025-45 should hold to allow this additional drop to occur. However, we look for a medium term base in the 1.2710 area and for further gains. Thus only below 1.2700 would allow losses to extend towards 1.2596 before higher.

Month View
(Updated 3rd April)
Resistance: 1.3085 ... 1.3235 ... 1.3410 ... 1.3700
Support....: 1.2625 ... 1.2515 ... 1.2180 ... 1.1700

The expected move higher has met with some early choppy price action but we feel this should now move onto the 1.3220-35 area this month at the very least and do see some risk of seeing gains extend to 1.3410. Watch this area since it could cause a pullback. Further resistance is around 1.3700.


GBPUSD
Price: 1.3010

Day View
Resistance: 1.3025 ... 1.3045 ... 1.3075 ... 1.3100
Support....: 1.3000 ... 1.2980 ... 1.2955 ... 1.2915

Bias: Lower from the 1.3030-45 area

Bullish: Although price development was slightly different from expectations we have seen a test of the strategic 1.3025-45 resistance. We feel there is a good chance of a further test of this resistance with a target at 1.3045 but we feel this will hold. Thus only above 1.3050 would trigger follow-through higher once again. Next resistance is at the 1.3095-00 corrective peaks and a break her and more importantly at 1.3125 would see price continue higher to retest the 1.3226 high.

Bearish: As expected we have seen test of the 1.3025-45 resistance target mentioned yesterday and this may well have provided a peak but we suspect there should be one further test during the first half of the day but while 1.3045-50 holds we look for loss of 1.2980-00 to signal the next leg lower to 1.2915 and then we look for a move down through 1.2830 and to 1.2760-70 where we feel a temporary base should develop. Next support is at 1.2710-20.



Week View
Resistance: 1.3050 ... 1.3125 ... 1.3225 ... 1.3360
Support....: 1.2825 ... 1.2760 ... 1.2710 ... 1.2655

Yesterday saw trading around the 4-hour Pivot Cloud which has managed to break above but not cleanly. Schaff Trend Cycle moved higher to reach 100 while FXS-RSI matched this rally but has yet to reach overbought territory. We feel the 1.3025-45 area will hold and generate the expected decline first to 1.2760-70 and then the 1.2700-20 area.

Yesterday's comments continue to apply:

Bullish: Currently there appears to be an upward bias but we feel this should not break above the 1.3050 level. Thus only a break here and then at 1.3100-25 would call for direct gains back towards 1.3226 and probably higher with next targets at 1.3360 and 1.3490.

Bearish: Although the medium term correction has been choppy we continue to consider the next likely turning point will be back in the area of the 1.2710 corrective low. Resistance at 1.3025-45 should hold to allow this additional drop to occur. However, we look for a medium term base in the 1.2710 area and for further gains. Thus only below 1.2700 would allow losses to extend towards 1.2596 before higher.

Month View
(Updated 3rd April)
Resistance: 1.3085 ... 1.3235 ... 1.3410 ... 1.3700
Support....: 1.2625 ... 1.2515 ... 1.2180 ... 1.1700

The expected move higher has met with some early choppy price action but we feel this should now move onto the 1.3220-35 area this month at the very least and do see some risk of seeing gains extend to 1.3410. Watch this area since it could cause a pullback. Further resistance is around 1.3700.


(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004

Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy SchaffCharts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.

 

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