Wednesday May 3, 2006 - 13:32:57 GMT
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FOREX: Monthly GVI Forex Survey Analysis
Analysis courtesy Cumino:
GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).
EUR USD 3 months: 1st day close 1.2591 (1.2140), av. responses 1.2696 (1.2286), Adjusted boundaries 1.22-1.30 (1.17-1.25).
GVI 58% (67%) COMPONENTS 11% 62% 26% (5% 57% 38%). DRY INDEX: 77% (69%)
6mstdev: 8% (9%). Neutrals increased and are high compared to LT average (48%).
EUR INDEX is bullish in absolute terms but diminished compared to previous. DRY is at record high. I signaled in the last comment a suspicion that long-term positions are being put in place.
My personal opinion for short-termers is that they generally missed the move to say from 1.23 zone and may be they mostly sold USD from the 1.24 -.50 zone.
With all risk premia (liquidity, credit, equities, currencies) so low, specs at historical all time high, RR on the 2STD dev. and daily indicators stretched one can think that a strong correction should be due. May be, but I donâ€™t rely too much on this opinion. Hedging un-hedging is the name of the game for me. 1.2790/1.2820 could mark a sort of panic zone?
USD JPY 3 months: 1st day close 113.26 (117.66), av. responses 112.01 (116.38), Adjusted boundaries 109-117 (114-122).
GVI: 46% (44%) COMPONENTS: 15% 78% 7% (13% 85% 2%) DRY INDEX: 23% (32%)
6mstdev: 4% (11%)
USD BULL index roughly unchanged and slightly bearish USD, but DRY index bearish USD.
Neutral components at 78% still high and above LT average (63%).
In the last comment I wrote: â€śit seems to me that spot is at an equilibrium that must be broken sooner than laterâ€ť. Survey suggests that JPY has further to go, but I am cautious in the short term.
On another front COT specs are not too much stretched, margin specs and RR are.
OIL 3 months: 1st day close 73.70 (66.74), av. responses 71.79 (68.13), Adjusted boundaries 67-81(60-74). Neutrals above LT average.
GVI: 42% (50%) COMPONENTS: 18% 79% 3% (10% 80% 10%), DRY INDEX: 48% (65%)
6mstdev: 3% (2%).
Bearish. Last time I signaled that the general behaviour was consistent with a major risk. Now the behaviour turned usual, focused unconsciously more on a â€śrelative pricesâ€ť judgment than a trend judgment. Until those are the results, of course regard only the Survey point of view, the oil can go higher and higher.
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