Wednesday May 3, 2006 - 14:36:38 GMT
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Forex: GVI Monthly Forex Survey Results
In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar against the euro remained negative. The three month ahead mean forecast for EURUSD was 1.2696 from 1.2286 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (May 1 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.2590.
The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) turned less negative the EUR/USD to 58 from 67 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast turned lower to 112.01 from 116.38 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 113.25. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index was virtually unchanged. It was 46 after 45.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to close at $71.50 in three months time from the current spot vs. the previous $67.86 estimate.
In a special question, participants were asked where they felt the U.S. Federal Funds rate would end the year: 11% said 5.0% or below, 36% said 5.25% and 27% saw 5.50%, while 26% saw above 5.50%.
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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