Thursday May 4, 2006 - 05:11:58 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Daily Technicals: Large risk of correcting
by Marc Spaelti
EURUSD: No progress could be made despite an early try at 1.2665, on the downside the 1.2600 level held well so far. Overnight the rising trend-line was breeched, this morning the trend-line lies at 1.2630, initial support at 1.2595 is pivot for a rapid descent to key support area 1.2485/1.2500. It looks like the top held for now, only a daily close above 1.2665 is clearly bullish for more, lets see how far we will correct, 1.2380 is a likely target from where the Euro could stage its next rally.
GBPUSD: It managed a double top at 1.8475 on the hourly charts, overnight Cable has left the 1-week bullish trend and is inside its old medium-term rising trend with trend-line far below near 1.80. First major support on the way down there is 1.8200, a likely target for a first stronger correction of the 6-cents up weâ€™ve seen in the past 5 days. Initial support 1.8375, next is 1.8285 and 1.8215 first strong. Should the pair hold, a follow-on movement breaking and closing above 1.85 must follow, else - sell any tops above 1.8430.
USDJPY: Very similar picture to the European pairs, with the recent short-term trend broken overnight. So far it has reached the 114.00 level, this is the first strong resistance, a break here will ultimately lead to a test of the medium-term bearish trend-line at 115.50, resistance levels at 114.50 and 114.85 on the way up. In case of a false break and reversal, 113.00 must be bypassed to maintain the 111.50 target in the immediate future, else we wait for levels above 115 to establish fresh shorts.
USDCHF: The 1.2270 key has again eluded us and here too the short-term bearish trend has been breeched. Medium-term trend-line is at 1.2600, strong resistance at 1.2550, those levels are the target for a correction that we should see by Friday night, initial resistance today at 1.2435, while underneath a fresh fall to try the 1.2270 level cannot be ruled out.
@08.00GMT EU PMI Services Survey April
@08.30GMT UK Services PMI April
@09.00GMT EU Retail Sales March
@11.00GMT UK BOE Rate Announcement
@12.30GMT US Unit Labor Cost, Productivity Q1
@12.30GMT US Weekly Jobless Claims
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